Ricky Dimon
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We have 16 games on the Major League Baseball schedule on Saturday—one more than usual because the Mets and Nationals are playing a double-header. The slate includes a trio of regionally televised contests on FOX. One of those pits the Cincinnati Reds against the San Diego Padres. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Reds-Padres, and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Reds ML (+136)
Vladimir Gutierrez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+130)
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+210)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Vladmir Gutierrez mowing down hitters left and right would obviously go well with a Cincinnati win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with betting on Fernando Tatis Jr. to leave the yard. But even if he does, the Reds can still take care of business. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Reds ML (+136)
The Reds are sending Gutierrez to the mound on Saturday and they have to feel good about their chances with him despite his relative inexperience. In his rookie season, the 25-year-old has compiled a 3-1 record and 2.74 ERA through 23.0 innings spanning four starts. Gutierrez faces a tough test in the form of San Diego, but he should be up for it. He will likely get more than a little bit of run support, too, because Joey Votto is back in the lineup and the Reds’ bats have been cranking. Miguel Diaz has been effective for the Padres, but he has previously worked only out of the bullpen. Given that SD’s bullpen is already overworked, this could be a trouble spot for whomever they assign to toe the rubber.
Vladimir Gutierrez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+130)
Gutierrez may not be setting the stat sheet on fire when it comes to strikeouts (19 in 23.0 innings), but he is setting down his fair share and the fact that he has been so good means he is working deep into games. That means he is giving himself chances. If Gutierrez can log at least 6.0 innings in this one, reaching the six mark is possible. It should be noted that San Diego has eight guys have struck out at least 41 times in 2021 and two others have fanned on at least 38 occasions.
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+210)
I like this play because the +210 odds indicate just how likely it is—relative to most other players—that Tatis goes deep. As individual prop bet it doesn’t pay out all that great, but it drive up the value of this parlay massively since it conflicts with a Cincinnati win. As the odds suggest, it could (maybe even should) happen. Tatis has homered in three of the last four games. Facing a right-hander will only help. The 22-year-old Dominican is batting .301 with 18 homers against righties compared to .214 with four HRs against southpaws.
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