Ricky Dimon
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The second half of the Major League Baseball season starts on Thursday, with one game and one game alone before the rest of the teams return from the All-Star break on Friday. Appropriately, it’s the biggest rivalry of all: the Boston Red Sox vs. the New York Yankees. Here is our same game parlay for this showdown, and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total when available.
Red Sox ML (+102)
Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+270)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Eduardo Rodriquez racking up his fair share of strikeouts would obviously go well with a Boston win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with betting on Aaron Judge to play longball. But even if Judge does go deep, there is no reason why the Red Sox can’t prevail. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Red Sox ML (+102)
As of Thursday afternoon, the Yankees still have yet to announce their starter. Clearly they are either going with a bullpen day or calling someone up from the minors. Whatever the case, it does not bode well for their chances. It doesn’t help that New York is running into a red-hot opponent that leads it by eight games in the American League East. That’s right; the surprising Red Sox are 55-36. They should feel good about sending Rodriguez to the mound because has improved dramatically in recent weeks. His 2021 numbers still stink (5.52 ERA), but he has delivered three quality starts in his last four appearances, highlighted by 6.0 innings of two-run baseball against the Yankees on June 28.
Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)
Even though Rodriguez has heated up of late, the only good thing about his 2021 numbers as a whole are strikeouts. The 28-year-old has mowed down 104 batters in just 89.2 innings of work. In 17 starts this season, only twice has he recorded fewer strikeouts than his number of innings pitched. Rodriquez has faced the Yankees twice and has racked up 15 Ks in 11.1 innings. Even 5.0 innings of work on Thursday should be enough to get Rodriguez to the six number, and any more innings than that would make this prop pretty much a lock. It should also be noted that New York has eight players who have struck out at least 55 times this year, including four with at least 73.
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+270)
Although Rodriguez should be in line for a strong performance, it would not be a shocking to see one blemish — by either him or a reliever — come in the form of a Judge home run. Judge has hit 21 homers in 2021, including two in the last five games. Going up against a left-handed starter will only help the right-handed slugger, as he is batting .323 vs. southpaws this year and has gone deep eight times in only 93 at-bats. Conversely, Judge is hitting a modest .265 versus righties with 13 HRs in 219 ABs, a far lesser home-run rate compared to his effort against left-handers.
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