Ricky Dimon
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Nine of the 15 games in Major League Baseball are in the evening or at night, including this National League East showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. It’s getting national television billing on FS1. And it’s getting same game parlay treatment, as well. Let’s take a look at the best such option for Phillies-Braves, and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Braves ML (-172)
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+320)
Ian Anderson Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
Parlay odds: +1264
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Freddie Freeman going yard and Ian Anderson mowing down batters left and right would obviously go well with an Atlanta win. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Braves ML (-172)
Vince Velasquez remains in the Philadelphia rotation after tossing 6.0 innings of one-run ball in a 4-3 win over Milwaukee on Monday. However, that was just the second time since 2019 that Velasquez has completed 6.0 innings, and he has not been a reliant starter in recent memory. Philadelphia’s bullpen has been extremely problematic, so if Velasquez can’t repeat his performance from his last outing then the visitors could be in trouble. Even with their win last night, the Phillies are just 5-9 on the road this season. Ian Anderson will get the nod for Atlanta. The right-hander posted a 2.48 ERA in the month of April and he had completed 15.2 consecutive scoreless innings before Toronto roughed him up a bit to the tune of four runs in his last outing. Anderson is holding hitters to a .215 average—including .194 when he pitches at home.
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+320)
Another reason to like the Braves’ chances is that heading into Friday night they led all of baseball with 45 home runs in 32 games. Freeman has seven even though he is hitting only .195. Six of those seven dingers have come at the expense of right-handed pitching. During his MVP season of 2020, Freeman batted .373 with 12 homers against righties compared to .245 with just one HR off a lefty. The 31-year-old has been slumping, but with a right-hander on the mound this a great time for him to get back on track.
Ian Anderson Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
In 10.1 innings against Philadelphia this year, Anderson has recorded 13 strikeouts. It doesn’t take a math wizard to figure out that 6.0 innings of work and perhaps even as few as 5.0 should be enough to see the rookie to the seven-K mark. And there is no reason why he can’t log that many innings. The Braves have let Anderson throw at least 88 pitches in all six of his 2021 starts, including 98 on one occasion. With Atlanta’s bullpen having worked a ridiculous 8.1 innings on Friday, you know Anderson is going to work as long as he remains effective.
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