Ricky Dimon
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There is a nine-game slate in Major League Baseball on Thursday, always one of the slowest days of the week with various teams in between series. However, the schedule still packs a big punch with rivalry games such as Dodgers vs Giants and this one between the Yankees and Red Sox. Let’s take a look at our same game parlay for this American League East showdown, and be sure to also check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Boston Red Sox ML (-144)
Xander Bogaerts to hit a home run (+500)
Tanner Houck under 5.5 strikeouts (-166)
Parlay odds: +1004
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Xander Bogaerts going deep would obviously go well with a Boston win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here with taking the under on Tanner Houck’s strikeout quota. But even if Houck is not mowing down opposing batters left and right, there is no reason why the Red Sox can’t take care of business.
Boston Red Sox ML (-144)
The Red Sox are coming off two consecutive wins over the Blue Jays earlier this week. They should feel good about its chances of staying hot when it looks at today’s pitching matchup. Jordan Montgomery of the Yankees owns a 4.18 ERA, 4.24 xERA, and a 3.72 FIP through his first 18 turns in the rotation this season. He has especially struggled over his last six starts, posting a 4.54 ERA and a 4.42 FIP, surrendering at least three runs on five occasions. He could be in for a difficult evening against a Boston lineup that ranks sixth in OPS and eighth in ISO in 2021. For Boston, Houck has only 30.1 innings of big-league experience but the early returns have been extremely promising. Across two seasons, he has posted a 1.78 ERA and a 2.85 FIP with an elite 30.3 strikeout percentage. The Yankees are still without Aaron Judge and they are dealing with several other key injuries, so they may take another slide down the AL East standings.
Xander Bogaerts to hit a home run (+500)
Bogaerts has left the yard 15 times this season, including twice in the last six games. Although the star shortstop has never homered off Montgomery, he is 9-for-19 lifetime in that batter-vs-pitcher matchup — good for a .474 average. Bogaerts sees it like a beach ball when Montgomery is on the mound, so it is only a matter of time before he takes the left-hander deep. In addition to a .324 batting average at lefties’ expense in 2021, Bogaerts also has a better home-run rate against southpaws compared to right-handers.
Tanner Houck under 5.5 strikeouts (-166)
This is obviously the safe play of the parlay as the odds would suggest, and to say it is safe would be a gross understatement. Houck just got called up from the minors last week and in his first start — also against the Yankees —he was allowed to work only 3.0 innings even though he yielded just one hit and zero runs. Houck struck out three guys, but he isn’t likely to reach six on Thursday no matter how well he pitches if he is still on a short leash.
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