Ricky Dimon
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We have a 12-game slate in Major League Baseball on Thursday — slightly short of full since a handful of teams are off as they travel to begin new series elsewhere. But there is plenty to work with on the betting front, and that includes this showdown between the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Yankees vs A’s, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
New York Yankees -2.5 alternate run line (+200)
Under 7.5 alternate game totals (+130)
Giancarlo Stanton to get a hit (-190)
Parlay odds: +1155
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is not really the plan here, although Giancarlo Stanton getting at least one hit obviously works well enough with a New York win. The Yankees prevailing by at least 3 runs and doing so in a low-scoring contest is a tough correlation, but it drives up the overall payout of the parlay. And there is no reason why it can’t happen. Let’s break down each of the legs one by one.
New York Yankees -2.5 alternate run line (+200)
New York has won an incredible 11 games in a row to catapult itself back into the American League playoff picture. Oakland, on the other hand, has dropped 4 straight and 8 of its last 10. The starting pitching matchup in the series opener will feature Jameson Taillon for the Yankees against James Kaprielian of the A’s. Through 24 turns in the rotation in 2021, Taillon owns a 3.94 ERA, 3.81 xERA, and a 4.21 FIP. He has been throwing the ball even better of late with a 1.99 ERA and a 3.29 FIP in his last 7 trips to the mound. During this stretch he has an excellent 1.08 WHIP and has posted a 21.6 strikeout percentage against a 6.8 percent walk rate. In this matchup New York has the slightly better starting pitcher, but its biggest advantage is an offense that ranks fifth in OPS and second in ISO over the last two weeks.
Under 7.5 alternate game totals (+130)
The Oakland Coliseum has produced the second-worst offensive production of all MLB stadiums in 2021 night games, generating 6% less offense than the league average. Taillon and Kaprielian are capable pitchers who should be able to keep this game low-scoring. Kaprielian just made his MLB debut earlier this season, but he has shined across his first 88.2 innings of work with a 3.25 ERA, 4.23 xERA, and a 4.15 FIP. He has continued to be effective over his last 7 starts with a 3.49 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. Both teams had yesterday off to rest their bullpens, which means that everyone should be ready to go in the late innings if needed. Oakland ranks only 17th in OPS and 16th in ISO over the last two weeks, so a New York win by something like 4-1 or even 5-2 is not at all out of the question and would cash these two legs.
Giancarlo Stanton to get a hit (-190)
There is no need to overthink this one. Stanton has hit safely in 12 of the last 13 contests, including 3 in a row. In 2 of the last 3 contests he has delivered multi-hit performances. The 31-year-old All-Star has also homered in 2 consecutive outings. Stanton is seeing it like a beach ball right now, and his .320 average in August has his overall number for the season up to .267. It should also be noted that Stanton is hitting better against right-handers (.270) than he is against lefties (.259) in 2021.
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