Ricky Dimon
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The Atlanta Braves have alternated wins and losses over the course of a hard-to-believe 18 straight games. What should not be hard to believe is that such a streak is a Major League Baseball record. The Braves hope it comes to an end on Wednesday, because they are trying to reel off 2 victories in a row after beating the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday. Another chapter in this 3-game series takes place on Wednesday, and it is getting the same parlay treatment it deserves. Let’s take a look, and and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Atlanta Braves ML (-112)
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+390)
J.A. Happ Under 5.5 strikeouts (-168)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Freddie Freeman hitting a homer and J.A. Happ failing to mow down Braves hitters obviously go well with an Atlanta win. Here is a breakdown of the 3 legs one by one.
Atlanta Braves ML (-112)
The Cardinals have been hovering around .500 for most of the summer and they made it clear at the trade deadline that they don’t really feel like they are in position to make a run. Their two most notable moves were the acquisitions of declining veteran lefties Happ and Jon Lester. Lester was lit up on Tuesday night in his Cardinals debut and Happ makes his on Wednesday. Happ’s half season in Minnesota went about as disastrously as a 4-month stretch can go: he finished his tenure there with a 6.77 ERA in 19 starts. It has been even worse lately; in his last 3 outings Happ has given up 20 earned runs on 28 hits. For the Braves, Freeman has been on an absolute tear since mid-June. The Braves bring their own lefty to the mound in Drew Smyly, who consistently gives his team about 5.0 innings. Even an average start should be enough to out-pitch Happ. The Braves have alternated wins and losses in a MLB-record 17 consecutive games, but look for them to finally win two in a row.
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+390)
Freeman has hit six of his 10 home runs against left-handers in 2021. That doesn’t bode extremely well for Wednesday, but consider some other relevant information. The all-star first baseman faces far more righties, so his home-run rate is at least somewhat similar against both kinds of pitchers. It should also be noted that Freeman hit a dinger off southpaw Jon Lester on Tuesday. Happ has surrendered at least one home run in an absurd 10 of his last 11 starts. This stretch includes at least two HRs allowed in six of those contests.
J.A. Happ Under 5.5 strikeouts (-168)
Happ has failed to reach the 6-strikeout mark—or even five, for that matter—in his last 3 starts. In fact, he has recorded at least 6 Ks only 3 times in his 20 outings this season. There is no reason to think he will suddenly get to a half-dozen against the Braves, so -168 an Under 5.5 play is solid value. Only 1 of the 38-year-old’s 5 starts in July was quality. He really hasn’t pitched deep enough into ballgames to rack up a lot of strikeouts since he has been so ineffective. And even when he has been out on the mound for a fair share of innings, Happy still hasn’t been setting down batters left and right.
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