Javan Shouey
It has been a fun start to the 2025 MLB season with talk of Torpedo Bats and ballpark changes, and the fun should continue on Wednesday’s loaded slate of action. There are 15 games to keep baseball fans entertained and I will highlight a couple things that are standing out to me from a betting perspective below. Let’s dive in!
Houston Astros First 5 innings ML (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Hunter Brown is someone I am looking to bet on when giving the chance in 2025, and today’s opportunity is one I am more than willing to pounce on. Brown is still just 26 years old despite this being his 3rd full season in the Astros rotation, and the progress he made in the 2nd half of last season has me highly encouraged for his outlook. The right-hander tossed a career-high 170 innings last season and became a workhorse towards the end of the year with 6 or more innings pitched in 19 of his final 22 starts made. He continued that trend with 6 full innings in each of his starts so far this season, allowing just 2 earned runs in each start to the Mets and Twins. Brown now faces a Mariners lineup that he has had success against in the past. Active Mariner batters have 100 combined PA against Brown so far, combining for just a .220 batting average and .594 OPS while striking out 33% of the time. Brown should be able to keep the ball on the ground and maneuver his way through this Seattle lineup on the road in a pitcher-friendly park.
Luis Castillo will start this game for Seattle, but it is not the longtime MLB veteran Luis M. Castillo, it’s Luis F. Castillo who has been called up from the minors to fill out their rotation for the time being. Castillo was not sharp in his Mariners debut, allowing 8 base runners and 3 earned runs in just 3 innings against the Giants last Friday. Today he faces an Astros lineup that is still getting used to life without Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. The team has shown a more patient approach at the plate this season so far with the acquisitions of Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker atop their order, and it is just a matter of time before those 2 sluggers feel comfortable in their new setting. Castillo has a long minor league track record, and he also pitched in the NPB in recent seasons. Projections are not fond of him in 2025 with a projected FIP in the mid-4’s and a very low projected strikeout rate. In my opinion, this matchup should favor Houston far more than the -125-price point implies, and I would play this prop up to -140.
Atlanta Braves First 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds. Risking 1u.
Taijuan Walker pitched well for the Philadelphia Phillies in his season debut, recording 6 shutout innings with only 4 base runners surrendered against the Colorado Rockies. I am not buying his success in a 1-game sample against a weak lineup and am instead looking to bet against the veteran right-hander in his 2nd start of 2025. Walker has been a disaster of a signing for the Phillies after being brought over from the division-rival Mets via free agency. He made 31 starts spanning 172.2 innings in 2023 but just 19 appearances in 2024 spanning 83.2 combined innings of work. His effectiveness also fell off, allowing a 1.72 WHIP and 7.10 ERA in his 2024 campaign. A low rate of whiffs and an inability to consistently locate his pitches hindered Walker’s ability to work deep into games, and his high rate of hard contact allowed made it very difficult for him to sustain any level of success.
A matchup that Walker has struggled with throughout his career is this group of Braves hitters. Active Atlanta bats combine for an OPS of 1.028 in 92 combined plate appearances with several individuals having very advantageous numbers in their head-to-head matchups. Walker’s earned runs prop allowed has -140 juice towards the over and he has yet to have an outs recorded prop released yet. With a 5.5 hits allowed line and a 2.5 walks issued line, bookmakers are expecting a healthy amount of base traffic for the Braves early on in this matchup. Trusted projections favor Atlanta to cover this 2.5 line within the first 5 innings and the plus-money price tag makes this angle a must play for me on Wednesday’s card.
