Javan Shouey
It has been a fun start to the 2025 season, and we will look to keep the good times rolling with our two favorite player prop bets for Saturday’s slate of games. Today’s prop article focuses on the control of Sandy Alcantara in his matchup with the Nationals, and the strikeout prop for Luis Ortiz in his showdown against the Royals. Let’s dive in!
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) Under 1.5 walks (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.
2022 National League Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara missed all of 2024 with injury, but he is back and ready to make his third start of 2025. Alcantara rose to prominence by way of his elite command of the strike zone, and his ability to generate a high rate of ground-balls. That combination allowed the right-hander to become a workhorse able to work deep into the majority of his starts. For today I am specifically focusing on his ability to avoid free passes, betting his under on 1.5 walks allowed in this matchup with the Washington Nationals. Alcantara did walk 4 Pirates in his season debut but bounced back nicely with 0 walks across 5.0 innings pitched in a tough matchup against the Mets last time out. His zone rate in that outing against New York sat at 54.3%, and he has essentially always had an above-average zone rate during his career. Alcantara posted walk rates of 6.3%, 5.6%, and 6.0%, respectively, in his last 3 healthy seasons and projection sources have him right around 6% again this year.
As for the matchup, Washington has been drawing walks against right-handed pitching at a 9.9% clip — tied with the Yankees for 15th in MLB. The Nationals’ plate discipline metrics align well with Alcantara’s willingness to throw strikes, however, and I don’t expect them to be in many deep counts today against Miami’s starter. The Nationals are chasing on pitches located outside of the strike zone at the league’s third-highest rate, and they are swinging at pitches located inside the strike zone at the league’s fourth-lowest rate. Alcantara recorded a strike rate of 68.9%, 68.7% and 67.9% in his last 3 seasons and I expect him to live from ahead in counts early and often. At -130 odds, I see value on this player prop.
Luis Ortiz (CLE) Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Luis Ortiz as an international free agent in 2018 and brought him along slowly before his debut at the end of 2022. He pitched as a starter and as a reliever for the club for much of 2023 and 2024 before being traded this offseason for Spencer Horwitz. Ortiz now joins a Cleveland Guardians rotation that hopes he can breakthrough under new guidance, but I am not a fan of his matchup today from a strikeout perspective. The right-hander averages 95.6 MPH on his fastball but has generated just a 23.0% whiff rate and 9.8% strikeout rate through his first 2 starts with his new club. Ortiz has not been a strikeout artist so far in his career, producing just 188 strikeouts across 249.0 MLB innings pitched. Projection sources have him between a 18%-19% strikeout rate this season, which is perhaps generous considering his 17.5% career rate. Regardless, Ortiz struggles to draw batters outside the strike zone and struggles to make batters miss.
The Royals have just a 20.2% strikeout rate so far against right-handed pitching through their first 421 plate appearances. Freddy Peralta recorded 8 strikeouts across 8.0 innings pitched while Pablo Lopez and Simeon Woods-Richardson each recorded 6 punchouts, but 9 out of the 13 right-handed starting pitchers to face these Royals have remained under this 4,5 prop so far. Kansas City has the league’s third-best contact rate on pitches outside the zone and the fourth-best rate against pitches inside the zone to begin the year, and their overall swinging strike rate sits third lowest at 9.7%. Ortiz may face around 25 batters or so, but given the matchup and his recent form I favor the under on this prop and would play it to -145 odds.
