Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
Before we get to the Division Series or the Championship Series, it’s time for the Wild Card round to kick off the 2024 MLB postseason. After an often unpredictable regular season on the diamond, this year’s Wild Card round should live up to its name. Here’s how it works: there are 8 teams fighting to move on to the Division Series in a best-of-3 series that runs from Tuesday to Thursday. Each series will have the same location for every game, so being the home team is a massive advantage in this format. The four teams that advance will play on Saturday, so it will be a grueling week for those that do advance after a long 162-game season.
Below, you can find the Wild Card matchups with the series winner odds as well as my best bet for each series. We’ve waited 6 long months for playoff baseball, and now it’s finally here. Let’s get into it.
We’ll have MLB picks for EVERY postseason matchup
MLB Wild Card Series Odds
Here are the four matchups happening this week, with the odds to win the series provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals (+145) vs Baltimore Orioles (-170)
Detroit Tigers (+150) vs Houston Astros (-175)
New York Mets (+115) vs Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Atlanta Braves (+150) vs San Diego Padres (-175)
To the surprise of nobody, all 4 teams that are at home are favored to win the series. However, we have seen plenty of upsets in this round (and the Divisional Series) in the recent past. So, does home-field advantage make that big of a difference? Or will the road warriors cause an upset or two? Let’s get into my predictions for every Wild Card matchup, with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
MLB Wild Card Series Previews and Best Bets
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles
This is a fascinating series between a couple of teams that are trending in different directions heading into this postseason. The Royals won just 4 of their final 13 games to close out the season, while Baltimore took home wins in 11 of its final 15 games to enter the playoffs with some much-needed momentum. The Orioles’ young core got a taste of what the postseason is like a season ago when Baltimore was swept by the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers. The tone for that series was set in Game 1, when the Orioles squandered a number of key chances with runners on base in a game that was ultimately decided by one run. I suspect Baltimore won’t want a repeat of last season’s Game 1 failure at home, and the Orioles should be in good position to do so with Corbin Burnes (2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) on the mound.
While Kansas City has been a great story this season, I’m not quite sure the Royals are anywhere close to a great team. For a playoff team, this lineup is a bit shallow once you get past the transcendent talent of Bobby Witt Jr. and savy veteran Salvador Perez. In fact, the Royals had a terrible month of September at the plate, finishing 30th in batting average, on-base percentage, OPS and wRC+. On the mound, Kansas City is led by all-world starter Cole Ragans, but the rest of the rotation is pretty average. If Baltimore can win Game 1 and give itself multiple cracks at winning the series at home, I find it hard to see Kansas City winning consecutive games at Camden Yards to advance to the Division Series.
Best Bet: Orioles Game 1 + series double (+110)
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros
The Tigers have been one of the best stories in baseball down the stretch, as Detroit finished with one of the best records in baseball since the All-Star break, and was aided by a total meltdown from the Minnesota Twins to qualify for the postseason. This would be a pretty lopsided matchup on paper if Tarik Skubal (2.39 ERA, .210 xBA) didn’t exist. The best pitcher in baseball recorded the most wins, most strikeouts, and lowest ERA of any American League pitcher this season, which certainly puts him in rarified air. He enters into this game on extended rest, which makes Detroit a very attractive option to take the first game of this series as underdogs in Houston.
While I do think Detroit has the edge on the mound in Game 1, the Astros are the more complete team from top to bottom, and Houston won’t panic if it ends up facing elimination in this spot. This is a core group of players that has been in this position time and again, which will give them a massive leg up on a Tigers team that is pretty inexperienced in this setting. Houston will likely go with Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown in Games 2 and 3 of this series, and they’ll be buoyed by a lineup that shouldn’t have much trouble figuring out how to produce against a motley crue of pitchers behind Skubal. Given that Skubal is going in Game 1, I believe the most value we can get in the series market is to take the Tigers to win Game 1 and the Astros to win the series at nearly 5-1 odds.
Best Bet: Tigers to win Game 1 & Astros to win series (+460)
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers
While New York was forced to play a doubleheader against the Braves on Monday to clinch a spot in the postseason, the good news for the Mets is they’ll get to avoid the San Diego Padres, a team that I think is a bad matchup for them. New York was also one of the hottest teams over the second half of the campaign, and it’s earned them a date with a Milwaukee Brewers team that has exploitable issues at the plate and on the mound. The Brew Crew have one of the highest strikeout rates in the postseason and have been a very middle of the road offense in terms of wRC+ and wOBA without the services of Christian Yelich. Outside of Freddie Peralta, the remaining options in the Milwaukee starting rotation aren’t too trustworthy either (Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale and Tobias Meyers). However, the Brewers do have a strong home field advantage and a terrific bullpen, so that certainly matters in a short series.
As for the Mets, this is an offense that is one of the top 8 units in the league and they showed their prowess at the plate once again on Monday in that 8-7 victory in Atlanta. Francisco Lindor leads the way, with Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and rookie Mark Vientos all contributing in this lineup. However, New York has real questions on the mound, as a rotation of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill and David Peterson isn’t exactly a recipe for success in October. The Mets bullpen has been inconsistent, as even Edwin Diaz was a bit hit-or-miss this season, holding a 3.52 ERA and converting just 20 of 27 save opportunities. With both of these teams facing serious questions heading into the playoffs, I’ll gladly take over 2.5 games and bank these teams settling things in a rubber match.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 games (-110)
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres
The Padres have been my World Series pick for well over a month now, and San Diego continues to gain steam as one of the best teams in baseball heading into the 2024 postseason. Offensively, this team is absolutely loaded, with the likes of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez, Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar all lighting it up at the dish this season. And on the mound, San Diego boasts a 4-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. That’s an embarrassment of riches on both fronts, and I haven’t even gotten into the bullpen yet, which was fortified at the trade deadline for the very purpose of winning a championship.
San Diego will have a distinct advantage over the Atlanta Braves in Game 1, who will have to travel across the country and play a rested Padres team just 24 hours after knocking off the Mets in the second game of a doubleheader to qualify for the postseason. Atlanta also had to use a ton of its relievers on Monday, particularly in that instant-classic in the first game of the doubleheader, where multiple key arms were burned by Brian Snitker in a losing effort. This situational spot for Game 1 alone makes the Padres an enticing option for this series wager, but news has also broke that Braves ace Chris Sale will not be pitching in this series due to back spasms. This puts the Braves at a serious starting pitching disadvantage, and while this is still a very solid lineup, Atlanta might not have the arms to keep up on the west coast. I’ll take the Padres to win Game 1 and the series at plus money.
Best Bet: Padres Game 1 + series double (+110)
