The Padres stunned the Mets in Game 1 of the Wild Card series with a 7-1 upset win on Friday night. After a 101-win season, the Mets could have their season ended before the divisional series. Game 2 will feature an excellent pitching matchup between Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom, so we should be in for a treat.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s Wild Card games.
Padres +1.5 (-154)
No run first inning (-205)
Blake Snell under 6.5 strikeouts (-130)
Parlay odds: +356
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
San Diego Padres +1.5 over New York Mets (-154)
The Padres opened this series with a massive upset as they took down Max Scherzer and the Mets 7-1. The San Diego lineup hit 4 home runs against Scherzer as the veteran was leaving too many pitches over the plate. They will turn to Jacob deGrom on Saturday as their backs are against the wall, and while DeGrom has usually been a sure thing, he’s shown that he’s human over the last few weeks. He finished September with a 4.50 ERA and nearly a 50% strikeout rate, but he was burned by extra-base hits as he allowed 6 home runs in just last month. And it wasn’t the best offenses roughing him up either as he had back-to-back-to-back starts against the Cubs, Pirates and Athletics and allowed 11 runs in those starts. The Padres showed their offense should be taken seriously on Friday night, and based on the 5.5 total, oddsmakers expect a close game. I’ll back the Padres to keep it close.
Here’s our game preview for the Padres vs Mets Game 2
No run first inning (-205)
It’s as juiced of a line for a NRFI as you’ll see all season, but it makes sense. In 19 of his last 20 starts, Blake Snell has tossed a scoreless first inning. This season, the lefty has performed best in the first inning, allowing opponents to hit just .134 with a .228 OBP. He faced the White Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals in his last three outings and easily retired them all in the first frame. I anticipate seeing Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo at the top of New York’s order based on recent starting lineups. These three hitters have combined for a 6-for-34 (.176) with 9 strikeouts against Snell throughout their careers. As for deGrom, he has dominated in the first inning throughout his career, especially at home. All it takes is 6 outs and we have ourselves a win.
Looking for 2 YRFI/NRFIs to tail today? Check out our 2 YRFI/NRFI best bets
Blake Snell under 6.5 strikeouts (-130)
I think Snell will have a solid outing, but it won’t come with a lot of strikeouts. The Mets are one of the best teams when it comes to putting the ball in play with two strikes. Take Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso for example, both hitters have completely different approaches with two strikes, they choke up and take away their leg kick so that they can focus on putting the ball in play. New York has also been a tough team to face as a lefty pitcher because they finished the regular season with a 19.8% strikeout rate against southpaws, the second-lowest rate of any MLB team. Snell faced the Mets twice this season and recorded 4 and 5 strikeouts in those outings, and with New York’s back to the wall, they will do everything they can to put the ball in play and avoid striking out.
Don’t miss our MLB parlays for today’s Wild Card action!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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