After the Milwaukee Brewers took Game 1 of the NLDS, the Atlanta Braves were able to even things up with a victory in Game 2. The series now moves to Truist Park in Atlanta, and the winner of Game 3 will take a crucial 2-1 lead. It should be a fantastic showdown, and what better way to spice things up than with a same game parlay? It just seems right.
I have a 3-leg parlay in mind, which I’ll explain below. On top of this article, be sure to check out our full previews for each game today. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter for any added plays.
Let’s get to it:
Brewers ML (-102)
Willy Adames to record 2+ hits (+200)
1st inning result: draw (-150)
Parlay odds: +800
This same game parlay is paying out at 8/1 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down one leg at a time:
Brewers ML (-102)
Freddy Peralta was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball in 2021, posting a 2.81 ERA, 2.72 xERA, and a 3.12 FIP across 144.1 innings of work. He limited hard contact and turned in an elite 33.6 strikeout percentage. His near double-digit walk-rate is always a concern, but that concern is mitigated somewhat against an Atlanta offense that ranked only 13th in walk-rate against right-handed pitching during the regular season. Peralta’s dominant swing-and-miss stuff should play nicely against a Braves lineup that strikes out more than almost any other offense in baseball.
Ian Anderson will start for Atlanta. After a sensational rookie campaign in 2020, he regressed substantially with a 3.58 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP in 24 trips to the mound in 2021. Milwaukee has a sizable starting pitching advantage and a far more rested bullpen. Atlanta has better offensive numbers on paper, but the Braves do not match up well against Peralta, who generates plenty of swings-and-misses. Milwaukee posted an impressive 50-31 road record in the regular season, and they should be able to put together a strong performance in their first road game of the postseason.
Willy Adames to record 2+ hits (+200)
The second leg of this parlay pairs well with the first. If Willy Adames is racking up hits, chances are the Brewers are in a good position. Adames has thrived at the plate since arriving in Milwaukee. He has provided a big boost to their lineup, and he appears to be seeing the ball well so far in this series. Adames has hits in each of the first 2 games, and I like his chances to keep things going with a big day today.
With the series moving to Atlanta, it’s worth noting Adames’ home/road splits on the season. His batting average increases from .214 at home all the way up to .302 on the road. In addition, his OPS goes from .734 to .890. He is clearly comfortable in the box away from his own ballpark, and Anderson’s BAA goes from .205 against lefties to .236 against righties. Look for Adames to turn in a multi-hit performance.
1st inning result: draw (-150)
With the change of venue from American Family Field in Milwaukee to Truist Park in Atlanta, it may take hitters a few innings to get adjusted. Peralta has overpowering stuff and can really limit Atlanta’s success at the plate. While Anderson has not been as overpowering, Milwaukee’s lineup has been notoriously light-hitting for most of the season. In what figures to be a low-scoring affair, a 0-0 first inning does not seem too far-fetched.
Don’t forget to check out our full game preview for Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves.
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