Game 1 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees will start in the Bronx. The Guardians advanced to the ALDS by sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays in a 3-game Wild Card series, but it wasn’t the most exhilarating series as only 4 runs were scored in 24 innings. That should change in this series as Aaron Judge and the Yankees look to continue their historic 2022 season with a trip to the ALCS and World Series. But for now, we have a +431 Same Game Parlay for Game 1 between the Guardians and Yankees.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games!
Cleveland Guardians +2.5 (-235)
Under 8.5 (-225)
Aaron Judge 2+ bases (-105)
Parlay odds: +431
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Cleveland Guardians +2.5 over New York Yankees (-235)
The Guardians should be able to stay within a run but to be safe, let’s take the +2.5 run line. Since Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie just pitched in the Wild Card, it will be Cal Quantrill’s time to shine. Since Quantrill finished with a strikeout percentage of 16.6%, which is around 6% lower than the MLB average, he is not a strikeout pitcher like Bieber or McKenzie. Only 35.7% of balls put in play against him are considered hard hit, as he uses a mix of his sinker, cutter, and changeup to get soft contact. That weakens New York since they rely heavily on extra-base hits and home runs to generate most of their runs. If Quantrill can keep the ball in the yard, he gives Cleveland an excellent chance at staying competitive in this game.
Opposing Quantrill will be Gerrit Cole, who is well-rested since he hasn’t pitched since October 4. However, the ace had a sub-par end to the regular season as he posted a 4.80 ERA in September, including giving up 9 home runs. Cleveland might not pull off the win, but they have the pitching to stay close in this game.
Be sure to check out our full Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees predictions
Under 8.5 runs (-225)
In the Guardians’ previous series against the Rays, they scored 3 runs in 24 innings. Their offense is the weakest of the 8 remaining teams, but their stellar starting pitching and elite bullpen continue to carry them. Quantrill is the ideal guy on the mound for the Guardians because he has been doing great away from Cleveland, as he’s allowed 2 runs in his last 26 innings on the road. Those four starts came against the Rangers, Twins, Padres and Blue Jays, so surrendering only 2 earned runs is impressive.
This pick also correlates with the Guardians +2.5 pick because if the Guardians stay close in Game 1, it will likely be because of their excellent pitching, not their offense. Playoff baseball tends to yield lower-scoring games, but take the alternate total for more of a cushion.
Aaron Judge 2+ bases (-105)
Aaron Judge’s journey to 62 home runs is over, which means we should see pitchers start to attack the slugger more. In the last two or three weeks of the regular season, no pitcher wanted to be the guy that allowed the record-breaking home run, so Judge was walking nearly twice a game. However, it’s now the playoffs, and every baserunner matters. Quantrill won’t want to give Judge the base if he’s followed by Anthony Rizzo, D.J LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton, so I expect Quantrill to challenge Judge. I anticipate Judge to be at the top of the order, so he’s likely going to get 4 at-bats, which means two singles or one extra-base hit is all he needs to hit this leg of the parlay.
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What is a Same Game Parlay?
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