Kevin Davies
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Today is a very, very busy day in baseball. All 4 games are happening throughout the day with the first starting in Detroit between the Guardians and Tigers at 3:08 pm ET and concluding with the Dodgers and Padres in San Diego, which begins at 9:08 pm ET. I’ve locked in my 2 MLB best bets for today’s ALDS and NLDS action, so let’s get right into it! You can also find out our individual MLB picks for all of Wednesday’s games.
Phillies vs Mets NLDS Game 4 best bet: Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-111)
The Mets’ offense has been fantastic in the postseason. Mark Vientos and Jesse Winker have blossomed into postseason heroes and the Mets are just 1 win away from reaching the NLCS. However, they will have to get through Ranger Suarez tonight. Suarez was nearly unhittable in the first half of the season as he posted a 10-4 record with a 2.76 ERA in 19 outings. He became the new sidekick to Zack Wheeler, but it didn’t last forever. Suarez landed on the injured list in July and made just 5 starts in July and August. When he returned, the southpaw didn’t look the same. He has a 5.74 ERA in 7 starts since rejoining the rotation and allowed a .313 batting average, .286 xBA and a 10% walk rate in those outings.
One of those starts came against the Mets and he allowed 2 runs, 5 hits, 2 home runs and 3 walks in 5 innings. But the most concerning part for the Phillies in this game is their bullpen. In 3 games this series, the Philly bullpen has allowed 12 runs, 17 hits and 5 walks in just 9 innings. So even when Suarez is out of the game, the Mets should still have plenty of scoring opportunities. New York has scored 6, 6 and 7 runs so far in the NLDS, so I’ll back the trend and take their team total over once again.
Read our full Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets prediction
Yankees vs Royals ALDS Game 3 best bet: Royals ML (+102)
Home underdogs can be extremely valuable in the postseason. We have a case of that tonight in Kansas City in a pivotal Game 3 between the Yankees and Royals. The Yankees have announced that Clarke Schmidt will counter Seth Lugo, and I was surprised to still see New York listed as the favorite after that. Lugo has been the far better and reliable pitcher this season as he posted a 3.00 ERA in over 200 innings in the regular season. But his reliability didn’t stop there as he threw 4.1 innings and allowed just 1 run and 5 hits against the Orioles in the Wild Card round. His only mistake was a solo home run to Cedric Mullins, which the bullpen was able to work around. Lugo will face the Yankees for the third time this year, and if his start tonight is anything like his last one against New York, the Royals have a great chance to take the series lead. The right-hander tossed 7 scoreless innings and allowed just 3 hits while striking out 10 in his most recent outing against the Yankees in September.
Plus, it’s hard to ignore Kansas City’s home and away splits at the plate. In the regular season, the Royals ranked 18th in batting average, 28th in OBP, and 20th in OPS at the plate on the road. But when Kansas City was at home, their lineup had the 4th-best average, 9th-best OBP and 10th-best OPS. I’m backing the Royals at plus-money odds since I believe they should be the favorite.
Read our full New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals prediction
