MLB Playoffs ALDS Best Bets for 10/12: Tigers vs Guardians

Is there anything better than a Game 7? Well, it’s basically a Game 7 tonight in Cleveland since the ALDS is just a 5-game series. The Tigers and Guardians play their Game 5 tonight in Cleveland — but at 1:08 pm ET instead of 7:08 pm ET because of bad weather expected on Saturday night.

I have a best bet for the series finale, so let’s dive right in!

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Under 6 (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

It’s the final game of a very eventful and action-packed series. The Tigers and Guardians have gone back and forth and the setting shifts back to Cleveland for the series finale. Detroit wasted no time announcing their starting pitcher, as Tarik Skubal will make his 3rd start of the postseason and 2nd start of the ALDS. The soon-to-be AL Cy Young Award winner has been phenomenal in the postseason; he has yet to allow a run in 13.0 innings against the Astros and Guardians. During those 2 outings, the southpaw allowed just 7 hits and struck out 14. He has held hitters to a .159 batting average, .182 xBA and 27% strikeout rate in the postseason. And did I mention that he’s on a 24-inning scoreless streak entering Saturday afternoon? The last time Skubal allowed a run was on September 18 against the Royals.

Matthew Boyd was a key piece of Cleveland’s rotation down the stretch and has continued to be an important arm in its postseason rotation. He made his postseason debut against the Tigers in Game 2, as he and Skubal went head-to-head in a must-watch game. Boyd threw 4.2 scoreless innings and allowed just 4 hits while striking out 5. That southpaw showdown between Skubal and Boyd ended with just 3 runs because of a Kerry Carpenter 3-run blast off of Emmanuel Clase. I’m expecting Detroit manager AJ Hinch to try to get 6.0 innings out of Skubal before using Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Jason Foley — and for Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt to use Boyd for 4-5 innings before going to his deep and extremely reliable bullpen. In this win-or-go-home game, runs will probably be scarce. I’m taking the under with confidence.