Caleb Wilfinger
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Postseason baseball is in full swing, and we have already seen our first team move on to the championship series — as the New York Mets knocked off the Philadelphia Phillies in 4 games to reach the NLCS for the first time in 9 years. Today’s action features just 2 games; the Guardians face elimination on the road against the Tigers, while the Yankees are looking to close out the Royals on the road.
This should be a fascinating day of baseball and I have a pair of MLB Division Series best bets for Thursday’s Game 4 action. You can also find out our MLB picks for today every game throughout the postseason.
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers best bet: Under 6.5 (+100)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
This has been a dead under series for the past couple of games, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Thursday. While this total has come down a bit from where it was in Game 2 and Game 3, I’m still seeing a bit of value on the under at the current price. However, given that this is such a low total, I would avoid playing anything over -110 or -115 juice.
It remains to be seen who will start for the Tigers in Game 4, but Reese Olson just tossed 5.0 innings of 1-run ball in Game 1 after Tyler Holton opened that contest in disastrous fashion. Therefore, I could see Olson starting the game and I would expect him to pitch well as the main bulk guy at home. Detroit is looking to close this series out and should be aggressive with a number of its high-leverage arms out of the bullpen in order to take care of business and avoid a Game 5 in Cleveland. On the other side, Tanner Bibee will get the call for the Guardians, and he should feel pretty good about this matchup given that he just produced 4.2 scoreless innings in Cleveland’s 7-0 victory in Game 1. Cleveland’s offense in the midst of a cold spell, but its pitching has remained very solid in the playoffs thanks to a deep bullpen with several available options for every situation. In a game where both offenses have been inconsistent and each team should have a quick hook on their starters, I’ll go back to the well with the under.
Read our full Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers prediction
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals best bet: Yankees ML (-150)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
Game 3 felt like the Royals’ best chance to really grab control of this series, but they squandered a couple of key chances in the late innings and ultimately lost 3-2 following a Giancarlo Stanton home run in the top of the 8th inning. With the Yankees now just 1 win away from clinching a trip back to the ALCS, they will send Gerrit Cole to the mound to face Michael Wacha in Kansas City on Thursday. Cole wasn’t his usual dominant self in Game 1, as he allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits at home. However, his career playoff resume speaks for itself. And since it is a close-out game with the Yankees ahead, the pressure on Cole won’t be as enormous as it was in Game 1 at home.
On the other side, Wacha also struggled in Game 1 — allowing 3 earned runs in just 4 innings pitched. Some of Wacha’s expected metrics this season have been alarming (bottom 35th percentile in whiff rate, xBA and barrel rate), and the Yankees’ offense was been able to string together a few hits against the veteran right-hander off 2-strike counts in Game 1. Even in front of their home fans, the Royals’ offense has been a bit too inconsistent for me to put faith in the team with the lesser starting pitcher on the mound. I’ll lay the juice on the money line with New York.
Read our full New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals prediction
