Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
Postseason baseball is in full swing, and both New York teams are in action on Thursday. We’ve got a blockbuster matchup in Queens, as the Mets are hosting the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS at Citi Field, while the Yankees are looking to push the Guardians to the brink in Cleveland with Game 3 of the ALCS. This should be a fascinating day of baseball and I have a pair of MLB Championship Series best bets for Thursday’s action. You can also find out our MLB picks for today and every game throughout the postseason.
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians best bet: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
This looked like it would be a dead under series on paper, and while the first 2 games have had a bit more offense than I anticipated, we should see a return back to a low-scoring affair on Thursday. With that in mind, I’d rather back a scoreless first-inning result as opposed to a full game under because I can isolate the opening frame and not have to worry about what pitchers each manager will bring in from the bullpen.
Cleveland’s offense is in the midst of a cold spell, and I don’t expect that to change in Game 3 against Clarke Schmidt (2.85 ERA, top 20% in barrel rate), even in a desperate spot. And while the Guardians likely won’t score much in this game, their pitching has largely remained very solid in the playoffs. We should see Matthew Boyd (2.72 ERA, 2.18 xBA) get the ball in the first inning, and while he has allowed a home run against Juan Soto in his career, Boyd has great numbers in a limited sample size against the rest of the Yankee bats near the top of the order.
Read our full New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians prediction
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets best bet: Kike Hernandez to record a hit (-130)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Despite all of the talent and playoff experience in their lineup, it’s hard to imagine where the Los Angeles Dodgers would be this postseason without Kike Hernandez. The 33-year-old super utility player has spent most of his career with Los Angeles, and he’s long been a playoff performer in Dodger blue. This postseason, Hernandez is exceeding all expectations, having racked up 7 hits over his last 19 plate appearances in these playoffs.
Hernandez cracked a solo home run to break the tie in Game 5 against the Padres, and he followed that up a couple of days later with a 2-hit effort against the Mets in Game 1. Game 3 on Wednesday was more of the same, as Hernandez finished with 2 hits, including a home run to help Los Angeles get out to a 2-1 series lead in New York. Hernandez is 4-of-16 for his career against Mets starter Jose Quintana, but a couple of those hits did go for extra bases. There’s no way I could fade Hernandez at this point, so I’ll gladly back him to record a hit once again at -140 or better.
Don’t miss our best MLB player prop bets for each of today’s games
