Javan Shouey
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The Philadelphia Phillies have their backs against the wall, having fallen behind 2-1 in their series with the New York Mets. Game 4 should be an electric matchup, as it’s win or go home for the Phillies while the Mets can advance to the NLCS in front of their own fans at Citi Field. Today’s best MLB player prop bet targets Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper, who I don’t expect to see have many quality pitches to hit. Let’s dive in, while you can also read our MLB picks for EVERY ALDS and NLDS matchup today.
Bryce Harper (PHI) over 0.5 walks (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
Bryce Harper was walked twice in each of the first 2 games of this series and nearly walked again in Game 3, jumping ahead 3-0 in a count before eventually swinging the bat. The Phillies lineup is filled with notable names, but no batter is more potent at the plate for them than Harper. The Mets understand this and are likely to try and limit the number of hittable pitches the lefty slugger will face. Harper generated a 12.0% walk rate during the regular season, a number that ranked him in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters. He has had a double-digit walk rate in each MLB season so far in his career, and it is clear that Harper has an elite eye at the plate.
The worry is that Harper could be a bit more aggressive given his team trails in the series and could be eliminated with another loss, but there are plenty of routes for this to cash in my opinion. Harper played 13 postseason games in 2023, walking 13 times in total while generating ball 4 at least once in 9 of those contests. Jose Quintana, the Mets starter for Game 4, allowed an 8.8% walk rate this season which ranked him in just the 38th percentile among MLB pitchers. Harper does see a slight uptick in his walk rate when facing southpaw pitching as well, and there is a good chance we don’t even need to wait for a bullpen arm to cash this bet.
Read our full Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets prediction
