Javan Shouey
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ALCS Game 3 is set to be an interesting matchup with Walker Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on Luis Severino and the New York Mets. From a prop betting perspective, I am seeing value in fading Buehler in the hits-allowed market as he is simply not pitching well enough to warrant his current pricing in this matchup. Let’s break down our best Dodgers vs Mets player prop bet for Game 3 of the ALCS, while you can also find out our MLB picks for this matchup and every game through the rest of the postseason.
Walker Buehler (LAD) over 4.5 hits allowed (-103)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
Walker Buehler has made 17 starts this season, including both the regular season and playoffs, and the veteran right-hander has allowed 5 or more hits in 14 of those starts. That includes 7 hits allowed across 77 pitches in his first playoff outing against the San Diego Padres, who scored 6 earned runs against him in that span. Buehler struggled to find his prior form once returning from the injured list this season, and his season-long numbers leave a lot to be desired for Dodger bettors. The right-hander ranked in just the 7th percentile in whiff rate which resulted in a 16th percentile strikeout rate overall. He ranks right around league average in walk rate allowed and given his lack of swing-and-miss capabilities at this point in his career he tends to allow a ton of balls in play. The bad thing for Buehler with his new approach is the amount of hits he gives up, and his .266 xBA ranked him just 16th percentile.
Buehler didn’t face the Mets during the regular season, but 5 different hitters from New York have at least 10 or more plate appearances of history against him coming into this pivotal matchup. Across 85 combined PA against Buehler as a team, active Met hitters have a combined .263 batting average while producing a healthy .893 OPS. Buehler is unlikely to see an extended leash given the high stakes of this game and his overall poor performance of late, but we should see around 4 innings or 70 pitches at minimum barring an absolute disaster of a start. With that workload, I am still seeing value in his over 4.5 hits allowed prop, especially given the price is nearly even money. Look for the Mets to attack his pitches inside the zone and come away with 5 hits off Buehler in this matchup.
Read our full LA Dodgers vs New York Mets prediction
