Javan Shouey
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Playoff baseball has been thoroughly enjoyable to watch this postseason, and the high-quality play should continue in today’s Game 1 matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. The two high-payroll rosters will collide in the NLCS, and their series begins with a primetime matchup on Sunday night. From a player prop perspective, I am seeing some value on Jack Flaherty props and am looking for him to pitch relatively deep into this Game 1 matchup. Let’s dive in!
Jack Flaherty (LAD) over 15.5 outs recorded (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
The MLB playoffs are structured with a 3-game series in the Wild Card round, a 5-game series in the divisional round, and a 7-game series in both the league championship series and World Series rounds. In the beginning rounds of the playoffs, it is common to see extremely short leashes on starting pitchers, especially starters that aren’t the number 1 or 2 options on their respective clubs. Now that we are deep into the postseason, I would expect managers to give their premier options a bit longer of a leash. Jack Flaherty didn’t even have a short leash in his first postseason appearance for the Dodgers, recording 16 outs across 90 pitches despite allowing 4 earned runs to the San Diego Padres. Los Angeles obviously has their entire bullpen rested for this Game 1 matchup against the Mets, but they would like to keep their options open throughout the series with a longer series expected. They would presumably love for Flaherty to pitch into the 6th inning and beyond, and he should see his normal 90+ pitch workload in my estimation.
Flaherty was acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline after a very strong start with the Tigers. He recorded 16 or more outs in 10 of his first 11 starts this season and 23 of his 29 starts overall during the year. While season-long hit-rates matter less when attempting to project postseason results, it is at least nice knowing that Flaherty is more than capable of working deep into ball games. His low walk rate and ability to generate the 3rd strike are both ways in which Flaherty has been able to remain efficient. He also may benefit from having not seen this Mets lineup this season, and active Met hitters have just 73 combined plate appearances against Flaherty all time with only 2 hitters having more than 5. I expect a strong effort from the right-hander and 16 or more outs recorded in Game 1.
