MLB Player Prop Bets for Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees in ALCS Game 2, Tuesday 10/15: Tanner Bibee gets hit hard

Kevin Davies

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MLB handicapper for Pickswise hailing from beautiful Boston, Massachusetts. I’ve been playing baseball since I could walk and betting games since I could (legally) gamble! I love a YRFI & NRFI bet and always on the hunt for a winning parlay.

Tanner Bibee (CLE) Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-145)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

I was really surprised to see this line set at 3.5 instead of 4.5. Tanner Bibee has been an important member of the rotation from Opening Day to the postseason, but he’s still vulnerable to being hit. He allowed at least 4 hits in 23 of his 31 regular-season starts and allowed 4 hits in both of his postseason outings against the Tigers. Bibee has surrendered a .283 xBA and 45% hard-hit rate in his 2 postseason outings and it won’t get any easier against the Yankees tonight. New York smacked Alex Cobb around last night for 3 runs and 5 hits in just 2.2 innings, and their approach at the plate seemed to be to attack the fastballs early in the count to avoid the breaking balls.

That game plan should continue tonight since Bibee throws his fastball for about 43% of his pitches and hitters have a .283 average against that pitch, whereas just a .152 average with a 36.1% whiff rate against his wipeout slider. Plus, the Yankees lineup has hit Bibee hard in the limited chances they’ve had against him. The New York lineup has a .353 average and .409 xSLG in 20 plate appearances against Bibee. It’s a small sample size, but it’s still good to see their success. I’m expecting Bibee to only go 4 innings tonight which should be long enough for the Yankees to record 4 hits against him.

Read our full Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees prediction