Kevin Davies
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It’s a busy day in sports with both the ALCS and NLCS happening as well as Thursday Night Football and a couple of college football games. I’ve kept my focus on the diamond and have my best player prop bets for both Dodgers vs Mets and Yankees vs Guardians tonight, so let’s get into it! Make sure you also read our MLB picks for today’s games as well as the rest of the matchups this postseason.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) Over 1.5 walks allowed (-125)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I was pleasantly surprised to see this priced so reasonably. I expected this to be priced closer to -150, so I see plenty of value on this line. There are several reasons for taking this over, and it starts with Clarke Schmidt. The right-hander made his return to the rotation in September and posted a 3.65 ERA in 5 starts, which earned him a spot in the postseason rotation. However, Schmidt allowed 10 walks in those 24.2 innings and had a tendency to lose control of his cutter and sweeper. He relies on getting swings and misses on his offspeed and breaking-ball pitches outside of the zone to be successful. But that doesn’t work too often on the Guardians since they are a patient bunch of hitters who won’t expand the zone too much. Last night they walked 4 times against Gerrit Cole in 4.1 innings. Plus, the Guardians faced Schmidt earlier this season and walked 5 times in that game — which was a season high for Schmidt. The Cleveland lineup has seen Schmidt extremely well over the years, so expect it to be picky at the plate and wait for their pitches.
Read our full New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians prediction
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-140)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Shohei Otani has been as advertised in the postseason. He launched a home run into the upper deck in last night’s game as the Dodgers took a 2-1 series lead. Through 8 postseason games, Ohtani has 7 hits, 6 runs and 8 RBIs against the Padres and Mets. He also has a 19% walk rate, which isn’t too surprising since teams don’t want to face Ohtani with runners on. That’s because Ohtani is 17 for his last 20 with runners in scoring position. That’s not a typo. Ohtani is hitting .850 in his last 20 at-bats when there is a runner on second or third base. That is absolutely absurd and a main reason for taking this bet. He doesn’t need 2 or more hits for this to win; he can get a hit and score a run, walk twice and score twice, get a hit and then hit a sac-fly…. The options go on and on. He will likely get 5 at-bats tonight, so I’m betting on him to record at least 2 hits, runs and RBIs.
See our expert MLB ALCS and NLCS best bets for today
