Javan Shouey
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The New York Mets won Game 5 by a 12-6 final score, staying alive in the NLCS and fighting to see another day. Game 6 should be an intense setting, and I am expecting a very entertaining chess-match between Sean Manaea and this Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Let’s dive in!
Sean Manaea Over 1.5 walks allowed + Under 4.5 hits allowed (+136)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +120 odds.
Sean Manaea has been the Mets most reliable starting option this season with injuries to key members of their pitching staff, and I am hoping he can replicate his performance from Game 2. That effort resulted in 5.0 innings with 2 earned runs allowed and 7 strikeouts, but I am focused on his hits and walks allowed in that first matchup. Manaea issued 4 free passes but was able to skirt around potential disaster with his ability to limit base hits, surrendering only 2 in that game. Teoscar Hernandez drew 2 of those 4 walks against Manaea, with Mookie Betts and Enrique Hernandez each drawing 1, as well. Manaea had his lowest strike rate of his 3 postseason starts in that Game 2 matchup, and Los Angeles is a very patient lineup that is more than willing to take ball 4.
During the regular season this Dodgers lineup ranked 8th in walk rate against left-handed pitching (3rd overall), while averaging the 5th most pitches per plate appearance as a team. There are multiple batters who are patient enough to earn the 4th ball and numerous hitters who are dangerous enough that the Mets may want to pitch around. That combination plus Manaea’s ability to lose command of the strike zone should result in 2 or more walks allowed in this spot. Manaea ranked just 41st percentile during the regular season in walk rate at 8.5%, but his xBA of just .229 sat 68th percentile. The southpaw allowed 4 or fewer hits in 22 of his 35 starts this season and his leash could be shorter than in Game 2 when the Mets jumped ahead to an early 6-run lead. Manaea allowed 2 or more walks in 19 starts this season, and in 15 of those 19 outings he gave up fewer than 5 hits. I think there is some decent value given the close proximity rematch and the high stakes at hand.
