Javan Shouey
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The New York Yankees won Game 4 on Friday, taking a commanding 3-1 series lead in the ALCS over the Cleveland Guardians. Now the Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound in hopes that they can clinch their first World Series appearance since 2009. Tanner Bibee will make his 2nd start of the series for Cleveland but was largely ineffective in his short stint the first time around. I am seeing some value on Bibee under 3.5 strikeouts at the current pricing for Game 5. Let’s dive in!
Tanner Bibee (CLE) under 3.5 strikeouts recorded (+133)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110 odds.
Tanner Bibee recorded 187 strikeouts in 173.2 innings during the regular season this year, serving as the ace of the Guardians pitching staff that otherwise did not have a top option. Bibee was a crucial part of the team’s regular season success, and his 8.2 innings across 2 outings vs Detroit in the first round helped his team advance. This is not the matchup for Bibee, however, and manager Steven Vogt had a very short leash in his first start against the Yankees this series. Bibee was limited to 11 batters faced on Tuesday, earning just 4 outs recorded in that sample of work, and he will now face the same lineup just 4 days later. His typical rest schedule is thrown off for this game and his team has their back against the wall with the inability to afford any more losses. I would be surprised to see Bibee’s workload increased this time around and am seeing solid value on his under 3.5 strikeout prop.
At +133 there is a lot of room for error on this prop, as even if Bibee were to complete 4 full innings there is no guarantee he clears this mark. The Yankees are largely a tough team to strikeout, posting the 10th lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching during the regular season at just 21.4%. Cleveland has utilized their bullpen often in the last 2 games, but they are running out of options and will likely utilize bullpen pieces for the 3rd consecutive day. They cannot afford another loss and despite their bullpen’s decreased effectiveness of late, it is the unit they have relied upon all season long. We could win this bet with another short leash or just simply poor performance in a tough matchup, and at current pricing I see some value on this angle.
