Javan Shouey
Both Paul Skenes and Ryan Pepiot dazzled in their season debuts, combining for just 3 earned runs allowed across 11.1 innings of work. Today we are hoping for a strong combined effort, as our best prop bet for today is the under on the posted total through the first 5 innings. Let’s dive in!
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays first 5 innings under 4 runs (-120)
Odds available at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds for under 4, -105 odds for under 3.5. Risking 1u.
Paul Skenes was amazing last season as a rookie, totaling 133 innings while allowing an ERA under 2 and racking up tons of strikeouts along the way. The rookie right-hander amassed an 11.5 K/9 and showed consistent control of the strike zone throughout the year. While Skenes was very good in his home ballpark, the talented pitcher was even more lethal on the road, dropping his ERA down to 1.32 in his 11 away starts. Tampa Bay no longer plays their home games in Tropicana Field, instead playing in Steinbrenner Field which is a more hitter-friendly set up. Still, I expect a strong effort from Skenes early on in this matchup against the Rays. Tampa was able to do damage against Carmen Mlodzinski and Thomas Harrington early in this series, but Skenes is a different animal when it comes to talent and approach. He should attack the zone early and often against this Rays lineup that employs quite a bit of swing-and-miss.
Ryan Pepiot looked terrific in his season debut, tossing 6 innings of 1-run ball with 8 strikeouts recorded to only 1 walk allowed. He commanded both sides of the plate and jumped ahead early in counts with consistency and now draws a similarly poor Pirates offense as the one he saw from Colorado. Pittsburgh refused to spend meaningful money in the offseason on position players, instead opting to use a mix of their young talent and replacement level veterans on short-term contracts. There are some spots in the lineup worth being more careful than others in, but overall, the unit is not one that strikes fear in opposing starters. Despite being a long time Pirates fan, I have a feeling this won’t be the only time I bet against them this season. With the game total sitting at just 7, and the starters being the best pitching options in this game, getting under 4 at this pricing seems like terrific value.
Paul Skenes (PIT) under 1.5 walks allowed (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
We are staying in the same game for our 2nd play and backing the command of Paul Skenes. The right-handed flamethrower struck out 170 batters to just 32 walks allowed as a rookie, and his underlying metrics suggest he will be able to replicate his control of the strike zone moving forward. Skenes ranked 27th among 107 qualified pitchers last season in terms of strike percentage, landing a strike 66.1% of the time overall. His 6.2% walk rate ranks 78th percentile as a rookie thanks to the confidence to pitch within the zone, and the ability to draw chases on pitches outside the zone. Skenes recorded a first pitch strike in 70% of PA’s during his season debut and despite allowing 2 walks in that start I was encouraged to see his performance.
Tampa Bay is projected to bat 5 righties in today’s lineup according to RotoWire, which plays into Skenes better handedness split as he cut his walk rate in half when facing RHB as a rookie. The Rays have been patient at the plate so far this season but their walk rate against right-handed pitching is inflated after yesterday’s matchup with Thomas Harrington in his MLB debut. Harrington walked 4 batters in that start, but I am confident that Skenes will feel more comfortable attacking these Rays. It can be hard to watch a game when you have an under on a walk prop, but today’s game is during the day so you can stay busy at work and check in afterwords. I don’t believe we will see this prop for Skenes at -125 very often this season so I will grab the value here and gladly live with the result.
