Javan Shouey
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
This is my first time betting a hitter prop in 2025, and there is no better hitter to bet on than Shohei Ohtani. The two-way player has yet to pitch this season in a game but is expected to return to the mound at some point for the Dodgers. For now, they will settle for having him just be the best designated hitter in the game. Ohtani spent 6 seasons in the American League with the Angels before signing with the Dodgers and winning the National League MVP and the World Series in his first year with his new club. He hit 54 home runs while stealing 59 bases, scoring 134 runs, driving in another 130 runs and producing a 181 wRC+ last season. His career-low 22.2% strikeout rate led to more balls in play than ever, and he was able to damage by covering this 1.5 HRRBI line in 63% of his games played.
The hits + runs + RBI market is my favorite batter market as a bettor due to the numerous ways in which we can cash. It does require assistance from teammates unless Ohtani is able to hit a home run, but the Dodgers lineup is as potent as any in the sport, even with the absence of Freddie Freeman. The bottom of the order is fully capable of getting on base for Ohtani to drive them in, and the batters behind Ohtani are also more than capable of doing damage themselves. As for Ohtani’s matchup today, he has only faced Aaron Nola 5 times in his career, earning 1 hit on an RBI double. While that is a rather meaningless sample size, Ohtani does perform well against Nola’s pitch arsenal. In fact, it’s hard to find any pitch type that Ohtani is incapable against. Nola was hit around for 2 home runs and 5 total earned runs in his season debut against a lesser Nationals lineup and I like the Dodgers chances of scoring off him today. Even if it comes down to the bullpen Ohtani has a good shot at 5 plate appearances given he is leading off for the road team with a 4.5 team total.
Robbie Ray (SFG) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
The next prop starts 5 hours after our first one, giving you plenty of time to search for your tightest pair of pants. We are betting on Mr. Tight Pants himself tonight with Robbie Ray taking the mound against the Seattle Mariners. I thought there was a chance we could get plus money on this prop when considering Ray struck out just 4 Cincinnati Reds across 5.1 innings in his season debut, but -105 is still more than playable and I would comfortably play this up to around -120 or so. The veteran left-hander has always had immense talent, as evident by his Cy Young award in 2021 with the Blue Jays. He has battled some injuries in recent seasons but is currently healthy and has added a new pitch to his arsenal in the offseason to help with right-handed batters. Ray talked with 2024 Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal about his changeup grip and then proceeded to spend the whole offseason making that pitch good enough to use in game action. While it didn’t generate any whiffs in his season debut, he did use that offering 12.8% of the time, giving him another tool in his arsenal.
Despite just 4 strikeouts in that first game Ray did generate 23 strikeouts to only 1 walk across 19.1 spring training innings. Last season in just 30.2 innings the southpaw recorded 43 strikeouts with totals of 8 against the Dodgers, 9 against the Reds, 7 against the Tigers, and 9 against the White Sox. He now faces a Mariners lineup that sports a 29% strikeout rate in their first 100 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season. Seattle has faced 3 left-handed starters so far with Jeffrey Springs recording 9 strikeouts, JP Sears recording 7, and Tarik Skubal recording 8. Ray Saw just 78 pitches in his season debut, but he was pulled due to allowing all 3 of his earned runs allowed in that 6th inning. If on his game, we can expect closer to 85-90 pitches in his 2nd start of the season. Public projection sources have Ray with a K% between 25.4% and 27.3% this season, and I love his chances of recording 7 or more punch outs in this matchup with Seattle tonight.
