Ahaan Rungta
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As we reach the dog days of summer with MLB as the only American professional sports league active, small slates like today’s are often tricky to read. However, I’ve found a spot of immense value.
Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, June 15. And also be sure to check out all of our MLB predictions.
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Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL, Over 1.5 total bases (-135)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.75u wager.
It’s rare that you see the price on a hitter’s total bases prop this steep, and it’s even rarer that you see me willing to pay up to buy it. But the juice is worth the squeeze with one of the game’s best tonight. Ronald Acuña Jr. is piecing together an MVP campaign, as he ranks in the 96th percentile of MLB hitters in hard-hit rate, 100th percentile in xwOBA, 100th percentile in xSLG and 93rd percentile in barrel rate. Against left-handed pitchers like Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, he is posting an absurd 179 wRC+, 1.049 ISO, .254 ISO and 56.4% hard-hit rate.
It’s clear that the talent of Acuña is opponent-proof, but today we also get a dandy of a matchup for him. Freeland has allowed a .374 SLG and posted a 4.96 xFIP to right-handed hitters this season and surprisingly has been even worse outside of Coors Field — as he spikes to a .521 SLG allowed and 5.08 xFIP on the road against righties. What makes the total bases prop an even easier smash is Freeland attacks the zone and has only posted a 5.5% walk rate against right-handed hitters. He does so with a 5-pitch mix, but most of the damage he allows in the zone is against the sinker and slider.
Acuña should just salivate at this profile. So far this season he has posted:
- 1.3 run value/100, .734 xSLG, 55.2% HardHit% vs. sinkers
- 2.1 run value/100, .759 xSLG, 57.1% HardHit% vs. sliders
It’s a warm, beautiful day with slight winds blowing out to center field in Atlanta tonight and Acuña should lead off and get at least 4 plate appearances to cash this bet. Even if he can’t get it done early off Freeland, it is noteworthy that Rockies relievers have posted a 5.47 xFIP against right-handed hitters over the last 30 days — by far the worst in MLB.
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