Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 29-11 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for each of today’s matchups.
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Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-115)
For my first pick on Tuesday’s slate, I’ll be targeting the NRFI in this AL Central matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians. This is an enormous series for both teams, but especially for a Guardians team that is already 7 games back of the Twins and needs to salvage something from this series or effectively be eliminated from contending for the division. Therefore, I’m projecting a strong start for Gavin Williams in a desperation spot for the home underdogs. It also helps that Williams has lowered his ERA by 0.60 points over the last 2 months, including a pair of tremendous recent starts against the Rays and Blue Jays.
The biggest reason why I love the NRFI in this game is that we’re getting Joe Ryan on the mound for Minnesota. After an extended absence due to injury, Ryan tossed 2 rock-solid outings against the Rangers on August 26 and September 1. Now he’ll get to face a Guardians offense that is 24th in OBP and 27th in OPS on the season. This should be a quick frame for both starters, so let’s back a scoreless first inning.
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Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees: NRFI (+100)
Last week, I targeted the NRFI in this exact same pitching matchup and I’ll be going back to the well with my NRFI selection in New York on Wednesday. We went against the abysmal Tigers offense in Tuesday’s picks, and Detroit did not let us down in its half of the first inning. While there are glimmers of optimism for the Tigers going forward, this offense is one of the worst in the league (28th in OBP, 29th in OPS) and went down without a whimper against Gerrit Cole. We should get another quick opening half of the inning with Clarke Schmidt on the mound, as he just tossed a scoreless first inning against this very same lineup.
Opposing Schmidt is Matt Manning, who fared extremely well against this same Yankees lineup just last week (6 scoreless innings) and now has another opportunity to continue his fine form of late. Yes, the right-hander’s season-long expected metrics are largely poor, but he’s continued to outperform those metrics en route to an ERA of 3.62. Furthermore, Manning has impressed over his last 4 outings, allowing just 1 earned run in 23.2 combined innings pitched against the Yankees, Astros, Guardians and Red Sox. This should be a repeat of one of last week’s winners, so let’s look for another quick start.
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