Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
I’m on a 25-10 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals: YRFI (-105)
For my first pick on Wednesday’s slate, I’m taking the YRFI in this clash between the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals. This is a purely a fade of both pitchers, and it’s easy to get there with Rich Hill. The veteran left-hander has struggled mightily all season, holding an xERA of 5.59 and he sits within the bottom 10th percentile in xBA, xWOBA, chase rate and whiff percentage.
Hill simply isn’t missing many bats and the top of the Cardinals lineup should jump on him for an early run. Even if St. Louis doesn’t scratch across a run in the opening frame, the Padres should tag Miles Mikolas in the first inning, especially given that the right-hander has an xERA of 5.03 and is in the bottom 10th percentile in xBA and strikeout percentage. Look for this high-scoring affair to start early.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-130)
For my second pick on Wednesday’s card, I’m going with the NRFI in this all-Florida matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins. One of the more underrated pitchers in baseball this season has been Zach Eflin, as the right-hander has consistently delivered for the Rays during each outing. Eflin’s 2.93 xERA and elite walk percentage and chase rate (both in the top 10 percentile per Baseball Savant) make him a nightmare for opposing hitters to face, and the Marlins mediocre lineup shouldn’t pose much of a challenge in the first inning.
On the other side, Jesus Luzardo hasn’t had the easiest stretch of outings lately, but the Marlins starter still doesn’t allow hard contact (top 10 percentile) and is coming off a terrific start against the Padres. Look for that momentum to continue today.
You can also check out today’s MLB mega parlay
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