Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 10-3-1 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Wednesday, so let’s get right into it.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-130)
For my first pick on Wednesday’s slate, I’m taking the YRFI in this NL matchup between the Reds and Nationals. Cincinnati has turned heads this season and after a terrific month of June, the Reds have a very real shot at winning the NL Central for the first time since 2013. The Reds’ success is in large part due to their explosive offense, as Cincinnati has scored the 7th-most runs in baseball this season while simultaneously allowing the 4th-most runs. With an ERA of 6.66 and sitting in the bottom 10 percentile of all qualified starters in xERA and xBA, Graham Ashcraft has certainly been doing his part to contribute to those pitching struggles. I’d expect him to surrender another early run on Wednesday.
Even if the Nationals are unable to get on the board against Ashcraft, I still like Cincinnati’s chances of scoring in the opening frame. After all, how can you not? The Reds have had one of the best offenses in the game this season and are averaging nearly 10 runs per game over the last 2 weeks. And while Josiah Gray has been solid on paper for the Nationals, his xERA is nearly a full point higher than his actual ERA, suggesting that regression is looming. Let’s back the YRFI in the nation’s capital.
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Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-125)
For my second pick on Wednesday’s card, I’m going with the NRFI in this NL Central clash between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers. This isn’t the most high-profile starting pitching matchup on the board, but it might be the best pitching matchup on the slate. For starters, Justin Steele does almost everything well. He doesn’t allow hard contact (top 9 percentile in average exit velocity & hard hit rate), he doesn’t walk hitters (88th percentile in walk percentage) and his advanced and traditional numbers are terrific across the board. The Brewers’ middling offense shouldn’t slow Steele down, as he’s surrendered just 3 runs in his last 4 outings.
On the other side, Adrian Houser has been rock solid of late, having allowed just 9 runs over his last 22 innings pitched (with 5 coming in 1 start). Houser’s strikeout percentage and whiff rate is discouraging, but he also doesn’t allow opposing hitters to square his pitches up (86th percentile in barrel percentage) and he’s allowed just 8 earned runs over his last 4 home starts. Expect another quick start from Houser to start Wednesday’s contest.
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