Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 14-5 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep the momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-135)
For my first pick on Wednesday’s slate, I’m taking the NRFI in this American League clash between the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are on the outside looking in with the AL playoff picture, but Seattle’s struggles this season have certainly not been down to its pitching. Luis Castillo has been nothing short of an ace in 2023, sitting in the top 20th percentile of all starters in walk rate and whiff rate. Furthermore, his ERA of 2.96 shows that his consistency hasn’t taken a hit throughout the course of this season. At this point, a quick start against the Twins should be expected.
Kenta Maeda hasn’t been quite as effective on the other side for Minnesota, as he currently holds an ERA of 5.50 on the season. However, he’s due for some pretty massive regression (xERA of 3.85), and the lefty should get off to a good start against the top of this struggling Mariners lineup. Having surrendered just 6 runs over his last 4 outings, I expect a solid effort from the veteran on the road. Let’s back the NRFI in what should be a low-scoring affair at T-Mobile Park on Wednesday.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles: YRFI (-120)
For my second pick on Wednesday’s card, I’m going with the YRFI in this interleague matchup in Baltimore between the Dodgers and Orioles. Even factoring in the juice, I’m still confident in this play given how good both of these lineups have been all season and the advantages they should have over the opposing starter. For starters, few teams in baseball are hotter than the Dodgers, who entered the All-Star break on a tear and emerged playing just as well. It all starts with the quartet at the top of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez and Will Smith, all of whom enjoy great success against right-handed pitching. They’ll get the pleasure of facing Dean Kremer, who ranks inside the bottom 10 percentile of all starters in xBA and SLG.
Opposing Kremer will be Julio Urias, who is coming off one of his best outings of the season in a shutout performance against the Mets last week. However, the left-hander still holds an ERA of 4.35 on the season and is going against a strong Orioles lineup that ranks inside the top 10 in OPS and SLG. This game should produce plenty of fireworks, and I expect that to start in the opening frame.
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