If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Wednesday.
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San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates: NRFI (-125)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Blake Snell has been looking like the 2018 Cy Young version of himself recently. In his last 36 innings, the lefty has allowed only 2 earned runs — that’s a 0.50 ERA since mid-May. It’s not like Snell has been the benefactor of some good luck either because, in those 36 innings, he is allowing a .139 batting average and a .169 xBA. He also has a 41% strikeout rate and just a 26% hard-hit rate which are both substantially better than his season averages. I can go on and on about Snell’s improvements from an analytical and eye perspective, but the bottom line is that his control is dramatically better, and he’s not the same pitcher he was in April with a 5.30 ERA.
On Wednesday, Snell will face a Pirates offense that is also dramatically different from how they were in April. However, it’s not in a good way. Before Tuesday’s game, Pittsburgh had just a 73 wRC+ in June which ranks 29th in baseball. The top of the Pirates order will likely feature Ke’Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe, and that should turn into a quick bottom of the inning. Cutch is 0-for-6 and Joe is 1-for-8 against Snell in their careers.
Mitch Keller is putting together his best season in the big leagues. In 16 starts, Keller has a 3.46 ERA and a 3.26 xERA and has limited opponents to just a .220 xBA. His strikeout rate is creeping towards 30%, and his walk rate is at a career low, so the 27-year-old is doing everything right this season. That includes in the first inning, as Keller has allowed just a .207 batting average and a .292 on-base percentage in the opening frame. He’s thrown a scoreless first frame in 4 of his last 5 starts and is fortunate to make Wednesday’s start in Pittsburgh. At PNC Park, Keller has a 2.78 ERA and a .195 batting average against in 45.1 innings. The pitching matchup is too good to consider anything but the NRFI.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles: YRFI (-113)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Luke Weaver might be the worst first-inning pitcher in the MLB. In 12 starts, Weaver has a 14.25 ERA in the first frame. Opponents are hitting an insane .424 with a .470 on-base percentage, a .712 slugging percentage and a 1.182 OPS against Weaver in the first. Most of that damage has come recently. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed 5, 2, 2 and 3 first-inning runs. His flat fastball and below-average strikeout rate have caused him to rank in the bottom 20% of pitchers in xBA, xSLG, xERA, barrel rate, whiff rate and more. It seems hard to imagine that Austin Hays, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander will let many flat fastballs go by them since those 3 hitters rank in the top 4 for Run-Value against fastballs on the Orioles.
Baltimore is countering Weaver with Kyle Gibson, who sports a 5.75 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 4 starts this month. But more importantly for this bet, Gibson has been very hittable in the first inning. Hitters have a .286 batting average and a .754 OPS against him in the first frame, and unfortunately for him, the Reds lineup has a history of success against him. In their careers against Gibson, Jake Fraley is 3-for-4 with 2 home runs, Jonathan India is 1-for-3 with a home run and TJ Friedl is 1-for-2. That doesn’t even include Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz, who have been hitting the cover off the ball for Cincinnati this month. I’m not sure if it will be the Reds or the Orioles, but at least one of these teams should end the opening frame with a run.
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