Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 33-13 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Thursday, so let’s get right into it.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays: NRFI (-110)
These teams are expected to contend in the American League this season, but only the Rays have lived up to expectations so far. Part of why Toronto was supposed to take the next step was its seemingly improved pitching, but Alek Manoah has not pitched like an ace this season. Despite Manoah’s 5.15 ERA and 6.54 xERA, his struggles have not come in the first inning. In fact, the Toronto “ace” has tossed 7 scoreless opening frames in 10 starts this season. Even against a terrific Rays lineup, I don’t expect Manoah to struggle until the second time through the order. He’ll be opposed by Zach Eflin, who has pitched to an xERA of 2.93 ERA this season and has not surrendered a first-inning run over his last 4 starts. I’ll take the NRFI at this discounted number.
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San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-115)
Unlike the other matchup in this column, this game between the Padres and Nationals should not feature strong starting pitching. Blake Snell is getting the ball for San Diego, and the left-hander is clearly struggling with consistency this season. Pitching to an xERA of 5.94 on the year and having allowed 6 runs over 4 innings pitched in his last outing, I expect another slow start for Snell in this one. On the other side, Jake Irvin will get the start for the Nationals, and his 6.87 xERA and .395 xWOBA both sit inside the bottom 10 percentile among all qualified starters this season. The Padres lineup came alive in their recent series against the Red Sox and I expect that to carry over into this series against a poor Nationals rotation.
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