If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. We’re currently on a 13-3 run with our YRFI/NRFI plays, so to say we’re hot right now would be an understatement! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks for every game on Wednesday.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-132)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s a southpaw showdown in Milwaukee, and that should lead to one thing — a low-scoring game. The Dodgers and Brewers were both well above .500 going into Tuesday night’s game and boasted strong starting rotations with above-average lineups, but both teams share the same weakness. Against lefties, the Dodgers have a .193 batting average, the worst mark in baseball. The Brewers aren’t much better at just .213, and these offenses aren’t getting unlucky either — they’re just not hitting the ball. The two offenses rank 1st and 5th in strikeout rate against southpaws, and the starting pitching matchup for Wednesday’s game pins Clayton Kershaw against Wade Miley.
The Dodgers will bat first, and that means Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith will likely be the first men up. While Betts actually hits slightly better against left-handed pitchers, the same can’t be said for Freeman or Smith. Going into Tuesday night’s game, Freeman is hitting just .205 against southpaws compared to .333 against right-handers and Smith has just a .214 average against lefties compared to .328 versus righties. They will face the veteran Miley, who has been excellent so far with a 2.31 ERA, but it drops to 1.59 when he’s at home. He’s also allowed a total of just 1 earned run in the first inning in 6 starts this season, and if Betts doesn’t get on, Miley has an excellent chance for another scoreless first frame. In the bottom half of the inning, I expect the Brewers lineup to go quietly against Kershaw. Before Tuesday’s game, Milwaukee had not scored in the first frame in 71.43% of their games this season. Christian Yelich will lead off for the home team, and the former NL MVP is hitting just .212 against lefties this season. Pitching should be the story of this game, and I’m counting on a scoreless first inning.
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New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds: NRFI (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Only one team has scored in fewer first innings than the New York Mets. Heading into Tuesday’s game, the Mets had failed to score in the opening frame in 82.86% of their games. They have one of the slowest starting offenses in the game, and I expect that trend to continue against Hunter Greene. Cincinnati’s flamethrower has been solid this season with a 3.74 ERA in 7 starts, but more importantly for this bet, he’s been excellent in the first frame. He’s limited opponents to 4-for-24 (.167) with a .200 on-base percentage in the first inning, which has led to just 1 earned run. Greene will face a Mets offense that ranks 28th in OPS in the last two weeks and just doesn’t seem dangerous right now. But the story of this game will be the infamous Justin Verlander.
Mets fans, you can take a breath — Verlander is back. The big offseason acquisition missed the first month of the season with an injury but returned to the mound last week against the Tigers. Besides 2 solo shots, Verlander looked good in his Mets debut with 5 strikeouts in 5 innings. I anticipate that he’ll only get better as he gets more starts under his belt. Verlander also gets a soft launch into the season since he faced the Tigers in his first start and will face the Reds in his second start, and neither team has been successful against right-handed pitching. Detroit ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties and Cincinnati is not much better in 23rd, so neither offense poses much of a threat to score. Verlander had just a 1.61 ERA in the first frame in 28 starts last season and was one of the best opening-frame pitchers in the game. I’m thinking that will continue on Wednesday in a scoreless first inning.
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