Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum through the 2023 season! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Wednesday, so let’s get right into it.
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Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: NRFI (-108)
When Zac Gallen is on the mound, I immediately look toward backing the NRFI. In this game, we’re getting a bit of value on the NRFI since Gallen will be opposed by Ryan Yarbrough, who holds an xERA of 6.78 and is in the bottom 10 percentile of all pitchers in strikeout percentage and xBA. None of Yarbrough’s metrics are impressive, but he has 3 outings this season where he’s thrown a scoreless inning. If the Royals’ opener is able to make it through the top half of Arizona’s lineup, then we should be in good shape with Gallen on the other side. The Diamondbacks’ ace is one of the best pitchers in baseball and has not allowed a run in his last 21 innings pitched. Don’t expect that to change against a Royals team that is 6-18 for a reason. I’ll take the NRFI at this discounted price.
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Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-125)
This is a matchup where we’d typically have to lay closer to -140 or even -150 juice, but we’re getting a slight discount because of Sandy Alcantara’s inconsistency this season. The 2022 NL Cy Young winner has an ERA of 5.47 and has had a couple of poor starts this season. However, his xERA of 4.75 suggests that he’s due for some positive regression — which makes sense considering 1 outing where he surrendered 9 runs did inflate his ERA. Alcantara hasn’t been dominant, but he’s still allowed just 6 ER over 21 innings pitched if you remove that outing against Philadelphia. If he gets off to a strong start on Wednesday, I have full trust in Braves starter Bryce Elder (1.14 ERA in 24 IP) to continue to perform well against a weak Marlins lineup. Therefore, I’ll grab the NRFI at this number.
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