Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum through the 2023 season! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Wednesday, so let’s get right into it.
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Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees: YRFI (-130)
Our first pick for Wednesday’s slate will be at Yankee Stadium, where New York will host the reeling Angels. All signs point to this being a high-scoring affair, especially with Johny Brito and Griffin Canning on the mound. Brito had been pitching over his head, but his last outing against the Twins was a rude awakening, as he surrendered 7 runs and failed to make it out of the first inning. He enters this game with an xERA of 7.71, to go along with xSLG, barrel rate and xBA metrics that are all within the bottom 15% of all qualified pitchers this season. He’ll be facing a desperate Angels team that is looking to get back on track after dropping 3 of their last 4. Expect a quick start from Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and company.
On the other side, Canning should have a difficult time with the top of the Yankees’ lineup given his underlying metrics. The right-hander looked decent in his first start against the Nationals, but an xERA of 4.19 doesn’t bode well for a significant step up in class on Wednesday. Having to face Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres in your first start at Yankee Stadium is a far cry from a below-average Nationals lineup. Considering that Canning’s xBA, xSLG and barrel rate are all below average, don’t be surprised if the Yankees grab an early run or two.
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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres: YRFI (-130)
These teams have already met this season, and we saw plenty of offense in that series. Now we have a total of 9 runs for this matchup, which implies that we’ll see more scoring from both sides against these mediocre starting pitchers. Charlie Morton gets the ball for Atlanta, and the veteran right-hander has not impressed this season. Morton’s xERA sits at 6.23 compared to an actual ERA of 3.86, so he’s certainly due for some regression in that regard. Furthermore, the top of the Padres lineup has great lifetime success off Morton, including terrific numbers from Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto. San Diego should get off to a quick start at home in this one.
The outlook doesn’t look much better for Nick Martinez, who currently sits in the bottom 20th percentile in xERA, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout percentage this season. The Braves don’t have much experience against Martinez, but this is still a lineup that mashes against non-elite pitchers — which is exactly what we have in this matchup. Even if the Padres are unable to score, I still like Atlanta to scratch across a run in the opening frame.
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