Ricky Dimon
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Both the ALCS and the NLCS will be in action on Wednesday. The ALCS is finally set and for the 3rd time in the last 6 seasons it will feature the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. We have already arrived at Game 2 in the NLCS after the Philadelphia Phillies picked up a 2-0 road win over the San Diego Padres in the series opener on Tuesday night.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate. Also be sure to read our MLB picks for today’s action.
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-155)
You often get great pitching matchups in the playoffs – especially early in series – and this matchup between Aaron Nola and Blake Snell is no exception. Nola has logged 12.2 innings in the playoffs and has allowed just 1 run, which wasn’t even earned. Dating back to the regular season, in 4 of his last 5 starts he has worked at least 6.0 innings without giving up a single earned run. In 7.0 innings against San Diego he surrendered just 1 run. Snell is coming off a performance against the Dodgers in which he allowed only 1 run in 5.1 innings. That was hardly any surprise, as the southpaw wrapped up the regular season with a 2.81 ERA in July, a 2.81 ERA in August, a 2.17 ERA in September and a 1.50 ERA in a single October outing. He is straight dealing these days.
Juan Soto has 3 home runs off Nola (in 33 at-bats) and JT Realmuto is 4-for-10 lifetime against Snell, but other than that nobody in the opposing lineup has done much of anything against either pitcher. Soto has gone 11 straight games without a homer, so I’m not too worried about him ending the NRFI with 1 swing. Realmuto has just 1 extra-base hit in the last 9 contests. All signs point to early (and probably late, too!) success for the pitchers.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres predictions
New York Yankees vs Houston Astros: YRFI (+120)
Congratulations to the Yankees for surviving a divisional series that lasted 3 days longer than all of the other 3. Not only did it go the full 5-game distance, but there was also a rainout before Game 5 against the Cleveland Guardians. After finally advancing on Tuesday evening, New York has to make a quick turnaround and face Houston on Wednesday. A long series and no rest means the Yankees’ pitching situation is far from ideal heading into the ALCS.
Jameson Taillon is getting the start for Game 1. He may be nothing more than the opener of a bullpen game. Of course, Taillon is the only NYY pitcher we are worried about when it comes to YRFI/NRFI. His 2 most recent appearances resulted in 4 runs allowed in 6.0 innings against Texas and 2 runs on 3 hits without recording a single out in the ALDS against Cleveland. Now he faces an offensive juggernaut in Houston that torched him for 6 runs on 10 hits (2 HRs) in 5.2 innings during the regular season. Leadoff hitter Jose Altuve is 4-for-10 lifetime against Taillon with a pair of doubles.
The Astros give us the best chance of hitting the YRFI, but keep in mind that Justin Verlander got roughed up in the ALDS – 6 runs on 10 hits in 4.0 innings against the Mariners. He won’t be feeling invincible when he toes the rubber today. Both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have taken Verlander deep twice in their careers. All in all, at +120 there is value on a first-inning run being scored.
Be sure to check out our full New York Yankees vs Houston Astros predictions
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