Mark Lammey
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We have a full MLB slate on Tuesday. There’s an afternoon game, and we can also get off to a fast start with some 1st inning plays. By predicting if a run will be scored in the 1st inning or not, we can profit in about 15 minutes. There are some aces on the mound and some of the league’s worst pitchers making starts as well. However, we’ve found value even outside of those more obvious spots. We’ve gone 2-0 on YRFI/NRFI best bets over the last 2 days, and now we’re looking to improve that run to 6-0 today!
Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games. Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite NRFI bets for today.
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Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-140)
These teams came through for us last night, and there’s no reason to stray away from them tonight. Obviously, a lot of the same logic applies. LoanDepot Park in Miami ranks among the best in terms of pitcher-friendly stadiums.
It ranks near the bottom for both home runs and overall runs, and is a primary reason why the Marlins have invested so much into their pitching staff. One of those investments is starter Pablo Lopez. He’s second in the rotation behind ace Sandy Alcantara. Lopez has been living up to his role, especially recently. He’s held the league’s best lineups in check across his last 4 starts. The Phillies, Mets, Braves, and Dodgers were all unable to score in the 1st inning against Lopez. Now he gets a Cubs team that is nowhere near the caliber of those teams. It certainly helps that Chicago is still without all-star Willson Contreras.
Their depleted lineup will be trying to support starter Adrian Sampson. That side of things is more about the Marlins’ poor run production, despite last night’s rare explosion. Their lineup has been the worst since the all-star break and is without their top hitters from the first half of the year. Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler haven’t been around in quite some time, and power-hitter Jesus Aguilar is now on the Orioles. Their lack of consistent bats is why they’re the lowest-scoring team in the 1st inning this season. Sampson has also held down some top lineups recently, like the Mets and Cardinals within his last 5 starts. He’s got a better matchup tonight, so expect another slow start like last night’s series opener.
Be sure to check out our full Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins predictions
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics: NRFI (-145)
After Monday off, the A’s are hosting the division-rival Mariners tonight. It’s a bit of stretch calling this a rivalry, as Seattle has won 7 of the last 10 meetings. This matchup also starts out with the same theme as our first play.
Oakland Coliseum is an even more pitcher-friendly ballpark, and arguably the absolute worst for run production. That’s because it ranks next-to-last for home runs and dead-last for overall runs. Therefore, it’s no surprise this is one of the lowest totals on the board today. It also helps that the A’s have the league’s 2nd-worst lineup in baseball. That should allow former-Red Luis Castillo to do his job. The Mariners starter has held much more potent lineups in check. That includes keeping the AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge and the Yankees scoreless in the 1st inning 3 times in a 4-game stretch. Even the league-best Dodgers couldn’t produce early on against Castillo.
The less straightforward half of this play is the Mariners not doing any damage in the 1st inning. However, they are without their hottest hitter, Eugenio Suarez. He was recently bumped up to the number 3 spot in the lineup, so that is a big blow to their chances. On top of that, leadoff man and rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez was scratched in each of Seattle’s last 3 games. Such a depleted top-of-the-order is great news for A’s starter JP Sears. The lefty didn’t allow a 1st-inning run in any of his first 5 starts with his new team. That includes a game against the Mariners at home. Sears also kept his former team, the Yankees, along with Shohei Ohtani and the Angels scoreless in the 1st inning, so he can do the same tonight.
Be sure to check out our Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics predictions
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