Caleb Wilfinger
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With more than a dozen MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game.
There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Tuesday, so let’s get right into it.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: NRFI (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
One of the better pitching matchups on Tuesday is featured in this NL clash. The Phillies need every win they can get, and their starting pitcher gives them a good chance to do so. Aaron Nola has been very good all season, but especially in his last 5 starts. Nola has pitched 6 or more innings in 4 of the last 5 starts while surrendering 8 total runs in that span. The right-hander has a 98th percentile walk rate on the season paired with a 91st percentile chase rate. His xERA is 93rd percentile, while also holding a 2.13 ERA on the road this season. Look for that dominance to continue against Arizona in the opening frame.
The Diamondbacks will counter with Zac Gallen. A lone bright spot in an otherwise poor season, Gallen’s 2.66 ERA speaks for itself. Gallen has 138 strikeouts in as many innings pitched this season, and his excellent form doesn’t stop there. In fact, the right-hander has not allowed a run in his last 27.1 innings pitched. Even against a dangerous Phillies lineup, I don’t expect the Arizona ace to lose momentum. Back this NRFI with confidence, as we should see a routine first inning.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins: YRFI (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
A very different pitching matchup will be taking place in Minnesota. The Red Sox and Twins have struggled with inconsistent pitching all year, and both teams send struggling starters to the hill on Tuesday. Chris Archer gets the ball for the home side and his 4.73 xERA and chase rate in the 8th percentile shouldn’t give Twins fans confidence. Most of Archer’s metrics are in the bottom 30% of qualified starters, meaning the strong top of the Red Sox lineup should take advantage. Archer has poor career numbers against Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts and I expect Boston to attack early on.
Even if the Red Sox don’t score in the top half of the first, Minnesota will be ready to face Kutter Crawford. The right-hander’s 5.30 ERA and poor advanced metrics across the board are cause for concern, as well as his 13 runs allowed in his last 2 outings. While the Twins don’t have much experience against Crawford, that hasn’t stopped other teams from pouncing on the struggling pitcher. Look for Luis Arraez, Max Kepler and company to get off to a hot start.
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