Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game waiting for your bet to cash? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight. We have all 30 teams in action today, starting in Philadelphia and coming to an end in Los Angeles. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies: YRFI (-150)
As we quickly approach September, the Philadelphia Phillies are playing their best baseball of the season. In the month of August, the Phillies have already broken their franchise record for home runs in a calendar month with 52, and rank 2nd behind the Braves in OPS (.886). Trea Turner launched 2 home runs last night, bringing his August total to 7, and Bryce Harper (8), Nick Castellanos (8), and Kyle Schwarber (9) have all added to the historic month. As far as run production is concerned, Philadelphia has scored at least 6 runs in 8 of their last 11 games. Tonight, they’ll face left-hander Tyler Anderson who owns a 5.35 ERA across 23 appearances and a 7.36 ERA through 4 starts in August. Anderson has done a terrific job at limiting hard contact (89th percentile), but his strikeout rate (18.9%) and walk rate (9.8%) aren’t a great combination against a lineup that’s seeing the ball extremely well.
While most of my confidence rides on the Phillies in the bottom half of the inning, I wouldn’t count out the Angels to jump out to a lead in the top half like they did last night. The Phillies have been winning of late, but they’ve often fallen behind and have given up first inning runs in 5 of their last 8 ballgames. The top three batters in the lineup for the Angels last night went a combined 5-for-13 with a walk and Shohei Ohtani is always one swing away from putting his team up. Ohtani and the rest of the Angels’ lineup will go up against right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who makes his 5th start since being traded to the Phillies. On the season, Lorenzen is pitching to a 3.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and his first two outings with the Phillies resulted in 8.0 innings of 2-run ball against the Marlins, followed up with a no-hitter against the Nationals. The two starts that followed resulted in 10 earned runs across 9.0 innings. Similar to Anderson, Lorenzen isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher (18.7%) and his 4.16 xERA suggests some regression. I’m backing each lineup in this game and backing over 0.5 runs scored in the first inning.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-120)
For my second game, I’m heading to the West Coast and making a play on the other team that plays out of Los Angeles. The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball and are 22-4 in August after starting the month with a 15-1 record. In addition to that, what was seemingly a race between Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman for NL MVP, looks to be no more. In just two weeks time, Mookie Betts has gone from an MVP long shot to the odds-on favorite at some sportsbooks. That’s what’ll happen when you slash .446/.500/.782 in the month of August. With that said, I think the Dodgers stay quiet (at least through the first frame) given the Diamondbacks starting pitcher tonight.
Merrill Kelly is having a phenomenal season, and in some respects, you can argue he’s had a better year than Zac Gallen. Through 23 starts, Kelly is 10-5 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 4 of his 5 starts in August have gone at least 6.0 innings while allowing 2 runs or fewer. Kelly made history in his last outing, joining Randy Johnson as the only other D-backs’ pitcher with 10+ strikeouts, 0 walks, and no more than 1 hit allowed. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, Kelly has a great track record against the Dodgers this season having already seen them on three occasions. Across 15.1 innings against L.A., Kelly has allowed just 2 earned runs, so I’ll back him again tonight.
On the other side of the equation, Clayton Kershaw takes the ball for the Dodgers in what’s been another superb season. Through 19 starts, Kershaw has registered a 2.52 ERA while pitching to a 2.25 ERA across 3 starts in August. Kershaw has only seen the D-backs twice this season, and they were his first 2 starts of the season. Each outing lasted 6.0 innings, with Kershaw holding Arizona to 1 earned run in his first outing, followed by 4 earned runs on 2 home runs the second go around. Kershaw is still pitching at an elite level and I’m going to side with a scoreless first inning given the great pitching matchup we’ll see later tonight.
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