Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the first inning and let the chips fall where they may. We have just 16 teams in action today, starting in Baltimore and winding down in Los Angeles. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates: YRFI (-140)
The Atlanta Braves continue to thrive offensively and recorded another 15 hits in their 6-5 win yesterday. Their league-leading 215 home runs are 34 more than the second-place Dodgers, and their 111 first-inning runs are 23 more than that same Dodgers team. Atlanta has shown no signs of slowing down and they’ve scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games. This afternoon they’ll go up against left-hander Bailey Falter, who will make his second start since his trade to the Pirates. Falter allowed 1 earned run across 4.0 innings in his Pirates’ debut, but his 4.87 ERA and career-low 15.6% strikeout rate are concerning.
The Braves will also have favorable matchups against Falter, as Ronald Acuna is slashing .321/.423/.568 against left-handed pitching, switch-hitting Ozzie Albies is hitting .389 against lefties as compared to .231 against righties, and Austin Riley is slugging .538 slugging off left-handers. The Pirates obviously aren’t on the same tier as the Braves when it comes down to offensive production, but even Pittsburgh has fared well of late. Over their last 6 games, the Pirates have scored 32 runs, and they’re facing a struggling pitcher in Bryce Elder. Elder may own a 3.43 ERA across 22 starts for the Braves, but he also owns a 7.71 ERA over his last 5 outings. The regression was imminent, and Elder’s still expected to regress with his 4.38 xERA. I’m fading each of these starting pitchers today and backing a first inning filled with runs.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians: YRFI (-140)
My second pick all comes down to the starting pitching matchup of Alek Manoah and Noah Syndergaard. Manoah, just 25 years old, is having an unprecedented season, and not in a positive manner. After posting a 3.22 ERA across 20 starts his rookie season and being named an All-Star and 3rd-place finisher in Cy Young voting in 2022, Manoah pitched so poorly to begin this season he was optioned to rookie-ball and the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, who serve as the Double-A affiliate to the Blue Jays.
Manoah got rocked in rookie-ball, surrendering 11 earned runs on 10 hits in 2.2 innings. His outing with the Fisher Cats went much smoother, and since rejoining the Jays, Manoah owns a 4.26 ERA over his last 5 starts. It’s an improvement, but Manoah is still struggling with his command (14 walks in his last 19.1 innings) and his 1.74 WHIP is the worst mark among pitchers with equal or more innings than Manoah has thrown this season.
The Guardians turn to a struggling starter of their own when Noah Syndergaard takes the ball for his 15th start, and 3rd since joining Cleveland after being acquired prior to the trade deadline. This is the fifth team Syndergaard has pitched for since 2021 and it feels like each outing is a showcase for why he belongs in the league. The 30-year-old has an extensive injury history, including undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020, causing Syndergaard to miss all of the shortened 2020 season and throw just 2.0 innings in 2021.
Syndergaard has experienced a significant drop-off in velocity since the surgery, and his 4-seamer that used to sit at 98.7 mph and touch 100, now rests at 92.7 mph. This season, Syndergaard owns a 6.75 ERA and comes off an outing in which he surrendered 4 home runs in 6.0 innings against the White Sox. His command has been excellent, but Syndergaard’s 14.0% strikeout rate is nowhere near the 24.0% mark he sustained for much of his time with the Mets. I don’t have enough trust in either of these starters to believe they go deep into this ballgame.
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