If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Tuesday.
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Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates: NRFI (-113)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
When looking for a game that could see a scoreless first inning, I look for 2 things — above-average pitchers and slow starting offenses. This game involves both of those factors as Matt Manning of the Tigers will counter Johan Oviedo of the Pirates on Tuesday night. Starting with the offenses, both of the lineups have been ice-cold since the break. Heading into Monday night’s slate, these two teams ranked 21st and 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the second half of the season. These lineups also rank in the top 10 in strikeout rate during the last two-and-a-half weeks, so it’s not that they’re getting unlucky — they’re just not hitting the ball. And when they do, it’s a lot of weak contact.
Manning is a 3rd-year pitcher for the Tigers who might be one of the only starters Detroit has left after announcing Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez will almost certainly be traded ahead of the deadline. Although Manning has an ERA near 5, he’s been at his best in the first inning. In 8 starts, the right-hander has allowed 1 run in the opening frame while limiting hitters to a .179 batting average and .574 OPS. As for his counterpart, Oviedo has taken a step backwards after a solid 2022 campaign. I might be a little worried if he was facing an above-average offense, but Detroit has the 6th-lowest OPS and the 3rd-most strikeouts in the opening inning this year. All it takes is 6 outs for a win, and I’m backing both offenses to stay cold in Pittsburgh.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-115)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The future is now in Cleveland as their #1 overall prospect Gavin Williams has reached the show. He’s made 7 starts for the Guardians and has a 3.35 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, but if you take out his poor debut, he has a 2.81 ERA in his last 6 outings. In that 6-start span, Williams has limited hitters to a .239 batting average with just a 36% hard-hit rate. But of course, what really matters for this bet is how good he’s been in the first inning. Williams has allowed just 1 run while holding hitters to a .208 batting average in his 7 starts. As long as the rookie can limit the free passes, I like his chances of getting out of the first without allowing a run.
Framber Valdez was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season. With a 2.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, the lefty has solidified his spot as the ace of the Astros. However, he’s been atrocious since the break with a 9.00 ERA in 3 starts. If you’re taking a full-game bet, that could be concerning. However, Valdez did not allow a first-inning run in any of his 3 starts in the second half of the season. That means the southpaw has surrendered only 2 runs while allowing a .194 average in the opening frame in 20 outings in 2023. He’s been one of the best pitchers to back in the first frame all year, so I’m counting on him again tonight and taking the NRFI in Houston.
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