Ricky Dimon
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The Major League Baseball week continues with a full 15-game slate on Tuesday. It is headlined by a National League East showdown between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets at 7:20 pm ET on TBS. There are plenty of options for YRFI/NRFI bets, on which I compiled in a perfect 2-0 record in my most recent effort this past Saturday.
This market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my best YRFI/NRFI bets for Tuesday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-115)
Shane Bieber got roughed up in his most recent outing for the Guardians against Baltimore, but he is still sporting a clean 3.72 ERA for the season. Despite that overall struggle, the Cleveland right-hander pitched a scoreless first inning – which he did throughout the entire month of May. In fact, Bieber has made 7 consecutive starts without being victimized in the opening frame. For Boston, Rafael Devers is 3-for-13 lifetime against Biever, Justin Turner is 1-for-5 and Alex Verdugo is also 1-for-5.
The Red Sox are countering with James Paxton, who has pitched at least 5.0 innings without allowing more than a single run in 2 of his last 3 starts. He has made 3 consecutive appearances without surrendering a run in the first inning. The left-hander is coming off a 5-inning performance against Cincinnati in which he yielded just 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8 batters, so he has plenty of confidence. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians is a dismal 2-for-14 in his career against Paxton.
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Oakland Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates: NRFI (-115)
Mitch Keller has not necessarily been a first-inning machine (he has allowed a run in the opening frame twice in his last 6 outings), but I’m not too concerned given that he will be facing the Athletics on Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, they have scored the fewest runs in Major League Baseball. Meanwhile, Keller compiled a 3.00 ERA in May and for the year he is 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and has 93 strikeouts compared to just 17 walks in 74.2 innings of work.
This is an interleague matchup, so there is less familiarity for hitters against these pitchers. Only 2 guys on the A’s have ever had a hit off Keller and only 2 Pirates have reached base against Oakland starter James Kaprielian (1 via a pair of walks). Kaprielian has pitched to the NRFI in 3 straight starts, so I’m willing to roll the dice with him even though he isn’t exactly an ace like Keller.
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