Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This market has been very profitable for us this season, so let’s keep the momentum going! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Tuesday, so let’s get right into it.
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New York Yankees vs New York Mets: NRFI (-130)
To start off with our NRFI selection on Tuesday’s card, I’m going to take a shot with both pitchers in this Subway Series matchup. Luis Severino is coming off a pair of frustrating outings against the White Sox and Dodgers, and a myriad of his advanced metrics would place him in the bottom 10 percentile of all starters at the moment. However, his previous outings against the Reds and Padres were stellar, so I’m expecting a bounce-back effort from Sevy to start this game.
Since returning from his suspension, Max Scherzer has had 4 terrific starts, bookended by a pair of poor outings. It just so happens that his last start, where he surrendered 5 runs on 11 hits, was arguably his worst of the season. Don’t expect a repeat of that performance from Scherzer, especially without Aaron Judge in the lineup on the other side.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals: YRFI (-125)
For our YRFI pick on Tuesday’s slate, I’m going back to the well with fading both pitchers in this Reds vs Royals matchup. Neither team has anything close to a good starting rotation, and it’s showed this season. Brandon Williamson was a well-regarded pitching prospect for the Reds, but what we’ve seen from him in 5 outings this season has been inconsistency. With an xERA of 6.34 and awful xSLG, hard hit rate and xwOBA metrics that place him near the bottom of all qualified starters, the Royals offense should see success against the young left-hander.
On the other side, the Reds’ offense has looked like a different animal since the insertion of rookie Elly De La Cruz, and all signs point to that continuing against Jordan Lyles (6.84 ERA, bottom 10% in xSLG), who is one of the worst pitchers in the game and has surrendered 42 earned runs in his last 42 innings pitched. At this number, it’s hard to pass up taking the YRFI in what should be a game for the offenses.
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