Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 19-6-1 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Tuesday, so let’s get right into it.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers: YRFI (-125)
This is a game between a pair of teams that have been inconsistent this season. However, both offenses should start strongly in this one. Noah Syndergaard has had a very poor start to his Dodgers career, posting a 6.32 ERA in 6 starts. His numbers show that there is hope for positive regression, but Syndergaard is still a below-average pitcher at this stage in his career. There isn’t anything special that stands out about him, and the Brewers’ offense should be able to get off to a good start in this series. On the other side, Eric Lauer has an xERA of 5.84 and ranks inside the bottom 20 percentile in xERA, xWOBA, hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity. This is a pitcher that isn’t missing many bats and the top of the Dodger lineup should feast early and often.
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Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels: NRFI (-120)
In what should be one of the premier pitching matchups of the day, the Astros travel to Anaheim for a date with the Angels. Any time that Shohei Ohtani takes the mound, you have to look at playing the NRFI. That happens to be the case on Tuesday, as Ohtani will put his 2.54 ERA and terrific advanced metrics (top 10 percentile in xSLG, xBA and whiff rate) to the test against a lineup that he has historically fared well against. The top 3 hitters in the Astros’ order are a combined 9-of-35 against Ohtani, with the majority of that production coming solely from Alex Bregman. On the other side, Framber Valdez seems to be in a good place with his stuff — posting a 2.60 ERA and having not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this season. Expect a hot start from both starters on Tuesday.
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