Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum through the 2023 season! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Tuesday, so let’s get right into it.
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Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays: YRFI (-135)
This is a game that features a pair of untrustworthy starting pitchers. When that is the case, you have to lean toward the YRFI in this spot. Last season as a member of the Blue Jays, Jose Berrios was extremely disappointing, posting a 5.28 ERA and was 1 hit shy of allowing 200 hits on the year. That hasn’t changed this season, as Berrios currently holds an ERA of 6.23, an xERA of 5.04 and his xBA, xSLG and hard hit rate are all well below average. Those metrics are ugly, and that even includes a 7-inning quality start from Berrios in his last outing. Look for the White Sox to get on the board to start the game.
On the other side, Mike Clevinger is due for some serious regression. The White Sox starter has an ERA of 3.26 on the season, but his xERA sits at 6.16 — inside the bottom 20% of all qualified pitchers in 2023. I don’t expect a massive improvement from Clevinger against a Blue Jays lineup that has multiple guys with success off the veteran right-hander in a limited sample size. Clevinger walks batters, his whiff rate is poor and he doesn’t get hitters to chase. This doesn’t bode well for a quick start from him on the mound on Wednesday.
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New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-140)
In a game that features a much better pitching matchup, the Twins and Yankees should get through this first inning quickly. Joe Ryan has been outstanding in 2023, holding an xERA of 2.46 and ranking in the top 15 percentile in xwOBA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate per Baseball Savant. His dominance over hitters should continue in this one against a Yankees lineup that has been frustratingly inconsistent this season, particularly on the road. It helps that Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are a combined 0-of-9 off Minnesota’s young right-hander.
Nester Cortes has been his typically consistent self in 2023, posting an xERA of 2.97 and maintaining an above-average xBA, xSLG, walk percentage and hard-hit rate. The top 4 hitters in the Twins order are a combined 5-of-24 against Cortes in their careers, so he should be able to retire the side without too much of an issue in what should be another low-scoring game in this Yankees vs Twins series.
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