Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum into the 2023 season!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Tuesday, so let’s get right into it.
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-130)
I targeted the NRFI in Monday’s game between the Marlins and Phillies, and I’m going back to the well for today’s slate. Given how well Jesus Luzardo has been pitching for Miami, you have to lean toward the NRFI when he’s on the mound. There’s no reason to expect anything different on Tuesday, as Luzardo has been rolling, pitching to a 0.71 ERA through his first 12.2 IP while maintaining great advanced metrics as well. The Phillies offense exploded for a 15-run outburst on Monday, but they’ve still been massively inconsistent to this point. Look for the Marlins left-hander to stay get started on the right foot once again.
While Luzardo should get off to a quick start, the Marlins’ offense shouldn’t give Aaron Nola much trouble. Nola hasn’t got off to a great start to kick off his 2023 campaign, but his xERA and other advanced metrics show that he is due for some serious positive regression. Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Phillies ace will face a Marlins offense that is nothing to write home about, as the Fish continue to have issues generating run support for their pitchers — much like a season ago. I expect Nola to retire the side in the top of the first, so I’ll back a scoreless opening frame in Philadelphia.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: NRFI (-110)
Milwaukee’s offense has been extremely inconsistent over the first couple of weeks, which isn’t a surprise given the Brewers’ struggles at the dish over the last few seasons. After going scoreless in the desert on Monday, Milwaukee should get a reprieve in theory against Merrill Kelly, who has an xERA of 7.44 through a pair of starts. However, both of those games came against the Dodgers — a team very familiar with Kelly — and Los Angeles was able to get to the right-hander in their second meeting in the span of a week. Considering that the trio at the top of the lineup of Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez and Wilson Contreras are a combined 2-of-28 against Kelly, I think he can get off to a solid start against the Brewers on Tuesday.
On the other side, Corbin Burns has been abysmal in his first couple of starts this season. However, that’s part of why I believe we’re getting this NRFI at a discount. There’s no reason that the Brewers ace should be this poor over the course of a full season, so I expect him to be due for some positive regression over the next few starts. The top 4 hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup are a combined 4-of-18 against Burns, so this is also a team he’s seen success against in his career. Arizona has scored a run in the first inning in each of its last 4 games, but I don’t expect that trend to hold up on Tuesday.
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