Kyle Lupas
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A 3-run third inning was all that the Texas Rangers would need last night to pull out a victory and pull ahead 2-1 in the 2023 MLB World Series. Tonight in Game 4, the Rangers look to starting pitcher Andrew Heaney, while the Arizona Diamondbacks start fellow left-hander Joe Mantiply in what’s slated as a bullpen game. If you don’t have the time to catch all 9 innings tonight, or simply want some action on a quick-hitting bet, look no further than the YRFI/NRFI market. We’re 3-0 on YRFI/NRFI picks in the World Series and looking to stay perfect tonight in Game 4.
Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: YRFI (-130)
So far in this World Series, we’ve seen just 2 first-inning runs, both coming from the Rangers in Game 1, but with tonight’s game total opening at 9.5 runs, I’m expecting the offenses to shine through, particularly in the early innings. Left-hander Joe Mantiply will start this game for the D-backs in similar fashion to Game 4 against the Phillies in the NLCS. Mantiply faced the minimum three batters and neutralized the left-hander hitters of Philadelphia in a scoreless first. The availability of slugger Adolis Garcia won’t be known until he undergoes tests today, but if he’s ruled out, Mantiply will presumably be tasked with facing Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Evan Carter.
In Game 1, Mantiply pitched the 7th inning in relief and faced those exact 3 batters, retiring the side in order. Even with the recent success, I’m siding with the Rangers given Semien and Seager are a combined 3-for-6 off Mantiply lifetime, Semien has hit safely in 5 straight games and Seager has 2 home runs in the World Series so far. The only real weakness would be Evan Carter, who’s just 1-for-18 against lefties, including 1-for-8 in the postseason.
I believe the D-backs’ lineup has a pretty significant edge in the bottom half of the inning going up against left-hander Andrew Heaney. Heaney pitched to a 4.15 ERA and 4.55 xERA over the course of the regular season and produced a 10.2% barrel rate. The postseason hasn’t exactly gone Heaney’s way either, with his last start coming in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Houston Astros. Expected to provide at least a couple of innings, Heaney lasted just 0.2 innings after surrendering 3 earned runs on 4 hits and 1 walk. Heaney was brought on in relief in Game 2, retiring the first 2 batters before giving up an RBI single to Corbin Carroll.
Heaney owns a 6.00 ERA through 6.0 innings this postseason and he doesn’t match up very well with the top of this Arizona lineup. Carroll is a perfect 1-for-1 against Heaney and his splits against right-handed pitching and left-handed pitching isn’t drastic. Carroll hit .286 against righties and .283 against lefties in the regular season. Ketel Marte is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs against Heaney, while Christian Walker is 2-for-3 with a pair of homers himself. Gabriel Moreno has yet to face Heaney, but he mashed left-handed pitching with a .352/.371/.528 slash line during the regular season, and that level of production has carried over into the playoffs. Look for these teams to come out swinging, particularly Arizona with a number of favorable matchups. Back the first inning over in Arizona.
Target our MLB expert’s Rangers vs Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay at +488 odds
