Mark Lammey
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Per usual, Thursdays in the MLB generally provide a smaller slate of games. That’s especially true this week, as there are just 7 games going on. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. There may not be as many sides or totals that catch your eye, but that’s why we have these plays. By predicting if a run will be scored in the 1st inning or not, we can profit in just about 15 minutes. There are not a ton of options, but we’ve targeted the best spots to boost your bankroll. Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for today.
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-135)
It may seem like we’re taking the low-hanging fruit with this play. However, that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has been the NL Cy Young favorite for virtually the entire season, and he’s well-deserving of the award.
He’s allowed a 1st-inning run just twice in nearly 3 months, and they were by the 2 best teams in the NL — the Dodgers and Mets. All he did after that Dodgers game was face them again in his next start and pitch a 1-run complete game. He shut them down in the 1st inning of that game, and just did the same against an incredible Braves lineup. He faces the Mets and Braves often, and still continues to dominate. Similarly, he’s faced the Phillies 4 times this season, and they are yet to score a 1st-inning run against him.
Philly starter Kyle Gibson was on the mound for 1 of those starts as well. The Marlins failed to score in that 1st inning, and that shouldn’t be surprising. Their offense has been the worst in the league since the all-star break, and scoring more than 2 runs is a cause for celebration in their clubhouse. Gibson kept the Mets in check recently as well, along with Braves and Cardinals the last time he faced them. Given Alcantara’s dominance and the Marlins’ lackluster lineup, don’t expect any early action in this series finale.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics: NRFI (-140)
Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait for the late-night game for this play, but these teams should make it worth it. This one isn’t quite as straightforward as the previous play, but it does involve one of the league’s top pitchers in Dylan Cease.
The White Sox ace has been incredible all season. He has a legitimate chance at stealing the AL Cy Young award while Astros ace Justin Verlander is on the injured list. Regardless, he’s coming off of a near no-hitter. He shut down the Twins for nearly the entire game before Luis Arraez recorded a hit with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. Although that was heartbreaking for Cease personally, the Sox still crushed that game 13-0. He should be in for another strong start given the A’s lineup. It’s the 2nd-worst in terms of both runs scored and team OPS. That also translates to early runs, as they’re the 5th-lowest scoring team in the 1st inning.
While Cease shutting down the A’s is the more comfortable side of this play, the other is trusting Oakland starter JP Sears against the Sox lineup. That’s not to sleight Sears, as he’s been great since joining the team. He came over from the Yankees and hasn’t allowed a 1st-inning run in any of his 5 starts with the A’s. That includes shutting down the top 2 AL MVP candidates in Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Oakland’s not a fun team to support this year, but we only need to count on them for 3 outs.
Be sure to check out our full Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics predictions
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