Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game waiting for your bet to cash? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight. Thursday brings a small 6-game slate, starting in Tampa Bay and winding down in Los Angeles with the Angels. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves: YRFI (-155)
The Cardinals go for a rare sweep of the Braves tonight in what has been a series dominated by the offenses. Through the first 2 games, there have been a total of 33 runs scored and 14 home runs hit, including 5 first-inning runs. I’m expecting the offense to carry over into the series finale with a struggling Adam Wainwright going up against a lethal Atlanta lineup. Wainwright has had a tremendous 18-year career and is just 2 wins away from 200, however the 42-year-old, 2-time NL wins leader has struggled in his final season as a Cardinal. Through 18 outings, Wainwright owns a career-worst 8.10 ERA alongside a 1.98 WHIP, while his underlying metrics categorize him as one of the least productive pitchers in baseball this season. Wainwright is striking out batters at a career-worst 11.1% clip and he’s given up at least 4 earned runs in more than half of his starts. There are no weak points in the Braves’ lineup, and I believe they have a decent chance to get on the board in the first inning.
Max Fried takes the ball for Atlanta, and there aren’t many criticisms to be thrown in his direction. Fried missed roughly 3 months of the season due to a left forearm strain, but he’s picked up exactly where he left off when he went down with the injury at the start of May. Over 11 starts, Fried owns a 2.52 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and has limited hard contact better than most with his hard-hit rate ranking in the 92nd percentile. While much of this bet is predicated on fading Wainwright and backing the historic Braves’ lineup, the Cardinals’ lineup has been the one doing the bulk of the damage in the series. Of those 33 runs and 14 home runs, the Cardinals have scored 21 of them while slugging 8 home runs. Paul Goldschmidt is 4-for-8 in the series with 3 RBIs while Nolan Gorman behind him has driven in 3 runs in back-to-back games. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see the Cardinals taking a lead into the bottom of the first inning, despite how effective Fried has been this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs: YRFI (-110)
My second pick brings us to Wrigley Field for an important series between the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs are clinging on to 2nd place in the NL wild-card standings after winning their last 4 games, whereas the D-Backs find themselves a half-game back of the Miami Marlins for the final spot. Arizona is coming off a series win over the Colorado Rockies, but has gone 3-6 over the last 9 games. Yesterday afternoon was certainly a step in the right direction for the D-Backs however, as they capped off their series with the Rockies with a 12-5 win on 13 hits and 18 baserunners. They’ll have a tough matchup tonight against Cubs’ starter Javier Assad, but Assad’s underlying numbers suggest there’s some looming regression on the horizon. Through 7 starts and 25 appearances, Assad owns a 2.69 ERA, but a 4.57 xERA along with a strikeout rate and walk rate ranking in the 32nd percentile or worse.
If the D-Backs are unable to get things done in the top of the inning, I have faith in the Cubs to produce at the plate. In September, no team has scored more runs (48) or had more extra-base hits (30) than the Chicago Cubs. They’ve posted 39 runs in their last 4 games alone and are receiving tremendous production from the middle of their lineup. Seiya Suzuki has a 1.415 OPS with 10 RBIs in his last 7 games, while Cody Bellinger owns a 1.234 OPS with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in that time. This red-hot lineup will be going up against right-hander Ryne Nelson, making his 25th start of the season while pitching to a 5.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Those aren’t great marks for a starting pitcher, and maybe most concerning of all is the fact that opposing lineups are hitting .295 against Nelson on the year. Nelson’s last 2 outings lasted just 3.0 innings apiece after he surrendered 6 earned runs and 8 baserunners in each outing. I’m not so sure his luck will change tonight against a lineup that’s been locked in at the plate. I’m backing runs in the first inning at Wrigley.
You can also read our MLB mega parlay for Thursday’s slate
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