Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game waiting for your bet to cash? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight. Thursday brings a 10-game slate, starting in Pittsburgh and ending in Colorado. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets: NRFI (-140)
Our first game brings us to Citi Field in a game between the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks, and it features a premier pitching matchup between Mets’ Kodai Senga and D-backs’ Merrill Kelly. Each starting pitcher has had a tremendous season for their respective ballclubs, and they both rank top 4 in the National League in ERA. Starting with the home team, Senga has been a phenomenal offseason addition to the Mets’ rotation. Through 26 starts, Senga owns a 3.07 ERA and a 2.53 ERA across his last 11 starts – 9 of which come as quality outings. Senga strikes out 28.9% of his batters along with a 6.2% barrel rate, with the only knock being his 11.2% walk rate.
Kelly has been just as effective for his team, as he owns a career-best 3.16 ERA across 26 starts and 154.0 innings. Similar to Senga, Kelly is above-average in the strikeout department (26.4%), but tends to allow walks at a higher clip (9.1%). Even with the high walk rates of both starters, each have managed to limit runs this season to the best of their ability, which is why I like a scoreless first inning this afternoon. Back two of the top pitchers in the NL this afternoon in what I view as a low scoring affair on both sides.
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Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays: NRFI (-120)
Next, let’s head to Toronto where we get another excellent pitching matchup and the final game of a 4-game set with the Rangers on the verge of a sweep and extending their current 5-game win streak. For the Blue Jays, they can’t afford to be swept at home by a team they’re chasing in the AL Wild Card standings, now finding themselves 1 game back of the Seattle Mariners for the third and final wild card spot. They’ll turn to their ace Kevin Gausman, who’s turned in another quality season now in his second year with the Blue Jays. Across 28 starts and 167.1 innings, Gausman is pitching to a 3.28 ERA (5th in the AL) and found success against the Rangers earlier in the year after giving up just 1 earned run over 6.0 innings. The biggest reason for Gausman this season has clearly been his strikeout effectiveness, as his 31.5% strikeout rate is his highest mark since the shortened 2020 season.
The Rangers will counter Gausman with right-handed veteran Nathan Eovaldi, making his third start back since spending time on the injured list with a right forearm strain. Eovaldi hasn’t pitched enough innings (127.1) to qualify him for any AL pitching stats leaders, but his 2.90 ERA across 21 starts this season would be among one of the best marks in baseball. In his last start, Eovaldi tossed 2.1 scoreless innings against the Oakland Athletics but was pulled after 47 pitches given he was pitching on just 3 days rest. Eovaldi will be pitching on 4 days rest coming into tonight and that should fare well going against a Toronto lineup that’s only managed to plate 7 runs in the series thus far. I’m backing the starting pitching in this contest and projecting a scoreless first inning.
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